Iran is preparing to hold an early presidential election following the death of former president Ebrahim Raisi. The election is scheduled for June, 28th with six candidates competing to secure popular votes and find their way to the Sa’dabad palace. To cover the political developments taking place in Iran, Al-Sarira has conducted a series of interviews with analysts and commentators working and researching on Iran and the wider Middle East. On the third interview, Mr. Elias Harfoush, the a Lebanese writer and journalist and one of Al-Sarira contributors, have accepted to answer our questions.
Thank you, Mr. Harfoush, for accepting our invitation. This is one of the rare moments the Iranian people are going to vote in a presidential election earlier than expected. How will you assess the potential results considering the emergent condition given rise by the deadly crash of the former president Ebrahim Raisi?
Elias Harfoush: This is indeed an unprecedented situation for Iran. The tragic crash that claimed the life of President Ebrahim Raisi has undoubtedly added an unexpected layer of complexity to the election. The abruptness of this election means that many candidates might not have had sufficient time to campaign extensively, which could affect their outreach and voter engagement.
Given this emergent condition, the potential results are hard to predict with certainty. However, it’s likely that the election will hinge on a few key factors:
- Sympathy Votes: The sympathy factor might play a significant role, as voters could lean towards candidates who were closely aligned with Raisi’s policies or who have portrayed themselves as his ideological successors. This might bring a continuity aspect to the election, as many Iranians might seek stability during this period of mourning and uncertainty.
- Reformist vs. Conservative Dynamics: The traditional dichotomy between reformist and conservative candidates will still be a major determinant. With the reformist bloc likely arguing for more freedoms and economic reforms, and conservatives emphasizing national security and resistance against foreign influence, voters will have a critical choice to make.
- Youth Participation: The youth demographic, which makes up a significant portion of the electorate, may also sway the results. Their concerns are typically centered around economic opportunities and social freedoms, areas where Raisi’s administration faced criticism.
Overall, the emergent nature of this election injects a significant level of unpredictability, but it also underscores the resilience of the Iranian political system in managing crises and maintaining electoral processes even under extraordinary circumstances.
What do you believe to be the main challenges and opportunities facing the Iranian community? How is the upcoming election likely to change the future?
Elias Harfoush: The Iranian community faces several significant challenges that this election could address or exacerbate, depending on the outcome:
- Economic Hardship: The economy remains the foremost challenge, exacerbated by sanctions and the collapse of the JCPOA. Inflation, unemployment, and currency devaluation are pressing issues that the next administration must tackle urgently.
- Social Freedoms: There is a persistent demand for greater social freedoms, particularly among the younger generation and women. Addressing these demands while balancing the conservative values of the establishment will be a delicate task for the new president.
- Foreign Relations: Navigating international relations, particularly with the West, is another critical challenge. Iran’s foreign policy has profound implications for its economic situation and overall stability.
As for opportunities:
- Economic Reform: If the new president can manage to implement effective economic reforms and negotiate sanctions relief, there is significant potential for economic recovery and growth.
- Youth Engagement: There is also an opportunity to engage more meaningfully with the youth, harnessing their energy and innovation to drive the country forward.
- Regional Influence: Iran’s strategic position in the Middle East gives it the potential to play a pivotal role in regional stability. A more diplomatic approach could enhance Iran’s influence and reduce tensions.
The upcoming election could change Iran’s future by setting a new direction in these areas. A president with a clear vision for economic recovery, social reform, and improved international relations could steer the country towards a more prosperous and stable future.
Sensitivity to various genders, races, and ethnic groups is a priority in any nation. How is the future president in Iran going to address these issues?
Elias Harfoush: The issue of sensitivity to various genders, races, and ethnic groups in Iran is complex and multifaceted. The future president will need to navigate these waters carefully to foster a more inclusive society. Here’s how these issues might be addressed:
- Gender Equality: While there have been some advancements, gender equality remains a significant issue. The new president could promote more women into positions of power and influence, ensure better enforcement of existing laws protecting women’s rights, and advocate for new legislation aimed at closing the gender gap.
- Ethnic Diversity: Iran is home to a diverse range of ethnic groups, including Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, and Baluchis. Addressing the concerns of these communities involves promoting cultural rights, economic opportunities, and political representation. Policies that encourage inclusivity and respect for cultural diversity could help mitigate ethnic tensions.
- Minority Rights: Religious and ethnic minorities in Iran often face discrimination. The new president could work towards better integration of these groups into the social and political fabric of the nation. Ensuring equal rights and protections under the law for all citizens, regardless of their background, will be essential.
- Youth and Social Change: Young people are pushing for more progressive social changes. Addressing their concerns regarding education, employment, and freedom of expression can help in creating a more equitable society.
The approach the new president takes towards these issues will be a litmus test for their commitment to human rights and social justice. Progressive policies and genuine engagement with marginalized groups can lead to a more unified and harmonious society.
Under harsh American and European sanctions following the collapse of JCPOA, the Iranian economy has been strained leaving its mark on social security and inflation. Reportedly, Tehran and Washington have been involved in indirect talks in recent months and Iran has managed to increase the oil sales. How will the election results unfold for the well-being of people in Iran?
Elias Harfoush: The election results will have a profound impact on the well-being of the Iranian people, especially in light of the economic difficulties exacerbated by sanctions. Here’s how different outcomes might unfold:
- Economic Policy Shifts: A candidate who prioritizes economic reform and is willing to engage in diplomatic negotiations to lift sanctions could pave the way for economic recovery. This would involve resuming JCPOA talks or finding alternative agreements to ease the financial burden on the country.
- Oil Sales and Revenue: Increased oil sales, despite the sanctions, show Iran’s ability to find alternative markets and methods to sustain its economy. A new administration that can enhance these efforts while seeking to normalize relations with Western powers will likely improve national revenue, which can be reinvested into social programs and infrastructure.
- Inflation Control: The rampant inflation has eroded purchasing power and living standards. Effective monetary policies, coupled with international economic support, could stabilize the economy. A president who prioritizes these measures will likely gain popular support for mitigating everyday economic hardships.
- Social Security: Improved economic conditions would naturally bolster social security systems. With better revenue streams, the government could invest more in healthcare, education, and social welfare programs, directly impacting the quality of life for ordinary Iranians.
The election results will be pivotal for the Iranian economy and, consequently, the well-being of its people. A president with a pragmatic approach towards economic recovery and international relations stands the best chance of improving living standards in Iran.
The Middle East has been the epicenter of global tensions in recent months following the outbreak of war in Gaza, Israel’s confrontations with Iran and an indirect Tehran-Washington escalation in Iraq. How may the Iranian election impact the dynamics of regional developments in future months?
Elias Harfoush: The Iranian election will have significant implications for the regional dynamics in the Middle East. Here’s a closer look at how this might play out:
- Diplomatic Stance: The elected president’s diplomatic stance will shape Iran’s interactions with neighboring countries. A candidate who advocates for diplomatic solutions and regional cooperation could ease tensions and foster a more stable Middle East.
- Proxy Conflicts: Iran’s involvement in proxy conflicts in places like Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon is a critical aspect of its regional policy. The new administration’s approach to these conflicts—whether through continued support, reduction of involvement, or seeking peaceful resolutions—will influence the regional power balance.
- Israel-Iran Relations: The confrontation with Israel is a central issue. A hardline president might escalate tensions, while a more moderate leader could explore avenues for reducing hostilities, possibly through backchannel communications or indirect negotiations.
- US-Iran Relations: The relationship with the United States is another crucial factor. If the new president can manage to engage constructively with the US, it could lead to a de-escalation of tensions not only in Iran-Iraq relations but also in the broader region.
- Gaza and Palestinian Support: Iran’s stance on Gaza and its support for Palestinian groups will also be influenced by the new president’s policies. A continuation of strong support might exacerbate regional tensions, whereas a shift towards supporting peace initiatives could improve regional stability.
The election’s outcome will set the tone for Iran’s foreign policy and its role in the Middle East. A president who can balance national interests with regional peace efforts could significantly alter the current dynamics and contribute to a more stable region.
Few months after the Iranian election, the presidential election in the United States will also be held. Considering the involvement of both main parties in both elections, how will the elections unfold under any of the four scenarios?
Elias Harfoush: The interplay between the Iranian and US presidential elections will be fascinating to observe, with several potential scenarios influencing the outcomes:
- Scenario 1: Moderate President in Iran, Democrat in the US: This could lead to a renewal of diplomatic efforts to revive the JCPOA or establish a similar agreement. Economic sanctions might be eased, leading to improved economic conditions in Iran and reduced regional tensions.
- Scenario 2: Moderate President in Iran, Republican in the US: While there might be more challenges in negotiations due to the Republicans’ generally tougher stance on Iran, a moderate Iranian president could still find common ground on issues like regional security and counterterrorism, potentially leading to selective easing of sanctions.
- Scenario 3: Hardline President in Iran, Democrat in the US: This scenario might result in heightened tensions. A hardline stance from Iran could provoke stricter sanctions and less willingness from the US to negotiate. However, backchannel diplomacy could still play a role in mitigating conflicts.
- Scenario 4: Hardline President in Iran, Republican in the US: This is likely the most volatile scenario. Both sides could adopt aggressive postures, leading to increased sanctions, economic hardship, and heightened regional tensions. The risk of military confrontations or proxy conflicts might also increase.
Each of these scenarios will have profound implications for both domestic and international politics. The interplay between the elected leaders’ policies and their willingness to engage in diplomacy will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Iran-US relations and their broader impact on the global stage.
By exploring these questions, we can see that the upcoming Iranian presidential election holds significant potential to influence not only the future of Iran but also the broader geopolitical landscape. The candidates’ positions on key issues such as economic reform, social justice, and foreign policy will be critical in shaping the country’s path forward.
