Erdoğan in the Green Zone; A “Give and Take” Model to Overcome Old Antipathy

A rare visit by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Baghdad may prove the start of a new era in the decades-old partnership between the two countries. Baghdad and Ankara finalized their grand strategies towards a series of key policies, covering a range of topics from military to commercial engagements. The settlings are the result of long months of fruitful talks at the ministers’ level in both countries. In addition, the geo-economic setting of the area has been improved by the new ties that Erdoğan’s first visit to Iraq in 13 years has built between Türkiye and Iraq, along with the UAE and Qatar.

With the current state of struggles in the Middle East, Turkish President’s presence in Iraq is a momentous event is the history of the regional developments. Besides its emblematic significance, this political effort has prompted extensive talks and commitments that might change the foundation for cooperation between the two nations. Furthermore, these advances can have profound geopolitical and strategic ramifications for other nations in the region. A number of intricate aspects have shaped Ankara’s historical connection with Baghdad, necessitating close monitoring of the shaping dynamics. Their relations have fluctuated between collaboration and war since the founding of both countries.

Türkiye had first remained cautiously neutral regarding Iraq. But when Saddam Hussein rose to power in 1979, ties between Türkiye and Iraq deteriorated due to his hostile measures and violent acts. Saddam Hussein started an eight-year war with Iran and another one with Kuwait. The Gulf War saw Türkiye siding with western attempts to quell Iraqi dictator’s radicalism. The Turkish authority’s relationship with Iraq went through a series of ups and downs during the ensuing years, with minimal effectiveness in managing Kurds and tense ties with Baghdad. As a result, there was a diplomatic deadlock, which forced Türkiye to reconsider its strategy. Türkiye has been pursuing a fresh approach to interaction with different power sectors in the last 15 years. Through well-thought-out measures and geopolitical strategies, Türkiye sought to strengthen its stability and advance economic development, with Hakan Fidan serving as the primary diplomatic figurehead.

According to authorities and sources familiar with the issue, the initiatives were based on a framework to promote the interests of both nations in the region and sought to serve all stakeholders while being in line with Türkiye’s national objectives. An outstanding demonstration of the achievement of the initiatives is the recent top-level meetings in Baghdad, which provided opportunities for productive communication and cooperation between the two countries. Through leveraging previous achievements and tackling enduring issues, the two countries may jointly establish a win-win partnership that may have favorable outcomes for the whole Middle East. Hesitations and concerns are still alive considering former discussions on a number of accords and massive endeavors that either never got off the ground or were rendered irrelevant by security and national considerations.

Several signs point to the possibility that the societies of the wider Middle East and the present state of affairs will allow for a shift in the fundamentals of the ties amongst the various states. The mutual partnership between Iraq and Türkiye has always been highly valued, and neither country have enough reasons or priorities to disregard it. Ankara is interested in and carefully monitors events in Baghdad for a variety of reasons. There are strong religious, cultural, and familial links between the two nations. Iraq and Türkiye share a borderline of around 250 miles. For Türkiye, who actively looks for chances to engage in economic cooperation with nearby nations, Iraq is a desirable target to broaden its economic ambitions. Türkiye’s view of itself as a powerhouse of politics in the region, in addition to its positions in business, trade, and agriculture, leads it to reinforce its political positions in bolstering partnerships with neighbors.

With all of natural and human assets that Iraq has, in addition to the country’s urge for growth and reconstruction, Türkiye believes it is in an advantageous opportunity to make a significant contribution to these endeavors. Ankara is also worried about defending its territorial integrity and national security, especially in the fight against extremism. Türkiye’s safety and peace are threatened by militarized entities like the Kurdistan Workers’ Party that operate in Iraqi soils. Türkiye, the US, the EU, and other world powers all designate the party as a terrorist group. Türkiye considers this challenge as a serious risk and believes that resolving it is essential to maintaining peace and integrity.

Given this context, Erdoğan seeks to make novel and potent contribution by a rare visit that has the potential to cause a fundamental change. The two-stage US intervention in Iraq in the twenty-first century increased unrest and turmoil. Hence, the present Iraqi administration would rather work with Türkiye to fight extremism and chaos on the basis of a security partnership. The cooperation between the two countries essentially boils down to two ideas. This cooperation is primarily shaped by institutionalized processes. The constitution of 2005, two years after US occupation, and the ethnic measures implemented by the former administrations have upset the country’s fundamental equilibrium. In over two decades following the invasion, no new political and societal infrastructure has been constructed by succeeding administrations. Al-Sudani administration hopes to resolve these issues by continuing tight ties with Türkiye and other influential actors in the region.

Türkiye, on the other side, upholds Iraq’s sovereignty with the assumption that putting an end to PKK activity will help stabilize the country’s democratic system. As a consequence, a new paradigm for collaboration between Ankara and Baghdad is being established by the authorities in the green zone of Iraq and commitment to Türkiye’s agenda. This is demonstrated by the fact that the Iraqi administration has designated the PKK as a forbidden organization, but not a terrorist one. Providing its assistance to Türkiye in the conflict with PKK, Baghdad hopes to increase influence across the country enjoying advantage of the economic growth resulting from its collaborations with Türkiye.

The revitalized relationship with Ankara, nevertheless, faces serious obstacles originating from local power-sharing systems and regional influence. Central government in Iraq has historically had little power to exert on Kurdistan region. In some periods, it enjoyed friendly and fruitful ties with the region. Besides, some political figures and powerful militia inside the country, who are under the influence of regional states like Iran may intervene if a hard and game-changing policy is adopted against PKK. Iraqi administration has to find a way out of this dilemma or it may get involved in a fresh series of political and security challenges.