In recent days, Israel has announced its plan to open a new front against Hezbollah in north to reach a number of goals and prevent a number of tragic scenarios from happening.
Four main reasons for Israel to change its war strategy with Hamas include the following:
1-Failure to achieve the stated goals of Israel’s senior officials in the war with Hamas:
In order to prevent national defeat for Israelis and personal humiliation for Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials who announced that the war will continue until the complete destruction of Hamas, Israel has now decided to start another war, a war with goals that are more attainable to forget the bitter experience of failure in the war with Hamas. One of the historical examples of this incident is Saddam Hussein’s defeat in the war with Iran, which was followed by his attack on Kuwait for the exact same purpose to cover up Saddam Hussein’s defeat in the war with Iran.
2-Gaining experience from past mistakes:
One of the weaknesses of the Israeli leaders in the face of the Hamas attack was declaring unattainable goals and not having strategic humility in this regard. Now it seems that the Israeli authorities have learned from this mistake and have realized the fact that even if they raze all of Gaza to the ground and kill all the members of Hamas, the thinking and ideology of Hamas will not disappear. For this reason, they are now seeking to create a war whose goals are more attainable.
3-Threatening Houthis to stop attacks in the Red Sea:
Israelis don’t not have the ability to face and fight with the Houthis for several reasons, and war with Hezbollah is much easier for them. Therefore, the attack on Hezbollah can be a kind of warning for the Houthis to stop their attacks on Israeli ships in the Red Sea.
Israel knows that entering the battle with the Houthis will probably lead to another defeat for its military. Also, Israel’s two allies, the United States and Saudi Arabia, do not have much desire to clash with the Houthis at this time, and it is likely that these two countries will be able to negotiate with the Houthis in the coming weeks. Therefore, the attack on Hezbollah can reduce the necessity of confronting the Houthis for Israel to leave this task to Washington and Riyadh.
4-Gaining the lost reputation:
Israel has always considered itself as having one of the most advanced and efficient armies in the world. But after the all-out attack by Hamas on October 7, which was a major military and intelligence failure for Tel Aviv, this belief has been questioned, and now the Arab and European countries, which have been and are customers of many Israeli military and intelligence equipment, may start to doubt about Israeli military power. This can have serious consequences for Israel both politically and economically. Therefore, Israel needs to win a war to regain its lost reputation now more than ever.
In the third and last part of this article, this question will be answered that why Israel has chosen to attack Lebanon’s Hezbollah instead of focusing on other threats such as Yemen’s Houthis and even Hamas itself.