Political experts in and out of Israel believe that in case Israel carries out its threat regarding a massive ground attack against Gaza, which would case even more death from the Palestinian side, Hezbollah might join the war and hit Israel where it hurts.
Political experts from different think tanks believe that although there is no way to accurately predict the future actions of Hezbollah, the group is continuously and accurately evaluating the situation on the ground
Washington Institute analyst and former Israeli army officer Yair Golan said in this regard that two scenarios may cause Hezbollah’s direct military response to Israel. First, if Israel starts a large-scale operation inside Gaza and Hezbollah concludes that the north is more vulnerable to attack than before. And second, if Israel conducts a pre-emptive attack against Hezbollah in anticipation of a major attack from the north.
But as Golan further noted, if Hezbollah joins the war, the entire territory of Israel will be covered by missiles and drones. “A large number of casualties and serious damage to strategic infrastructure will be among the consequences of the beginning of this battle. Hezbollah will also attack strategic gas platforms in Israel. Haifa’s ammonia tanks are also being targeted, which Hezbollah may blow them up, just like what happened in the disaster at the port of Beirut 3 years ago. In total, Israel will be targeted from strategic places such as Haifa port and other places in Israel,” Golan said.
How effective can Israel defense systems be?
Regarding the efficiency of Israel’s defense systems, Golan said that Iron Dome and other air defense systems will be able to intercept 90% of the 4 to 6 thousand rockets fired by Hezbollah daily, but the number of rockets that may hit Israeli residential areas will still be high, causing much damage and chaos. they create he does. “If Hezbollah enters the war with Israel, both Hamas and Hezbollah will launch thousands of rockets in the shortest possible time to defeat the Iron Dome air force, and this is a big fear for our defense against them,” Golan explained.
Sarit Zehavi, a war expert from the Alma Research and Education Center in Israel believes Israeli people are not well equipped and protected if an attack from Hezbollah arrives. “The worrying thing about this is that many Israelis cannot shelter in their homes and social shelters are not enough to keep all the people safe. In addition, all shelters are prepared and ready to face a limited duration of time,” Zehavi said, adding also that in the event of a battle, it is expected that “Hamas will implement Hezbollah’s previous plan to occupy the Jalil, which has been announced by its Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah many times before.”
Hezbollah’s drones, a real nightmare for Israel
According to Fabian Hinz, a senior analyst at the International Center for Strategic Studies (IISS), “Israel’s biggest advantage for decades has been having a highly advanced air force unmatched in the region. But now, and thanks to drones, non-state actors like Hezbollah can identify the enemy’s strategic depth and launch precise attacks,” Hinz said.
He also noted that “in the event of a battle, if Hezbollah only sends four or five drones each time, they will most likely be shot down by Iron Dome. But if they really manage to launch a large number of drones and combine these attacks with the rapid firing of their rockets, the situation will change completely to Israel’s disadvantage.” Good to mention that according to estimations by an Israeli think tank last year (2022), Hezbollah has about 2,000 drones.