Following the collapse of the Assad government in Syria, experts believe that the Arab country won’t see peace and stability at least in the near future due to conflicts among different powerful fractions.
With the collapse of the Assad government, Syria now finds itself fragmented and dominated by three factions, each with foreign backers and distinct and different goals.
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Syrian opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
These groups, with Turkish support, now control central Syria and their sphere of influence extends from the northern border with Turkey to the southern border with Jordan. Although the members and branches of this group share a common religious identity, the Sunni factions have a history of extensive internal conflicts with each other, which could hinder their ability to form a coherent state or maintain long-term stability in Syria. These opposition forces range from former jihadists in the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to secular groups such as the Syrian National Army, which broke away from Assad’s army after the 2011 uprising.
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Kurdish forces
Kurdish groups in north-eastern Syria, bordering Turkey to the north and Iraq to the east, control territory. They continue to be supported by the United States, which has established military bases in the area. This support risks escalating tensions with Turkey, which sees Kurdish empowerment as a threat to its security and territorial integrity.
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Alawite forces
Pro-Assad Alawite factions, who reside mainly in the coastal areas of western Syria, have strong ties to Iran, Iraq, and the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah. These areas could serve as bases for the remnants of pro-Assad groups after the opposition takes over, perpetuating sectarian divisions.
Political experts believe that the sharp divisions between these groups, combined with the lack of a mutually acceptable mediator, suggest that Syria may now face instability and prolonged conflict.
