The Syrian rebels announced, on Sunday, in the annals of Middle Eastern history, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad authoritarian regime as a seismic transformation that has taken regional observers and worldwide political analysts by utter shock.
The declaration by the rebels came via state television – a symbolic touch underlining how an iron-fisted regime that crushed dissent for nearly a quarter-century had finally fallen. “It’s collapse,” a Syrian army officer told Reuters on condition of anonymity. “The regime has informed its command that it is no longer in power.
It was then suddenly announced that the flight of Assad out of Damascus sent shockwaves across the region. Two senior army officers have confirmed that the president of Syria has flown out of his capital, out of the Middle East.
Scenes in Damascus were nothing short of surreal: Thousands thronged the main square of the city, both on foot and in vehicles, waving flags, chanting “Freedom”-that strong-sounding utterance that had been decades of pent-up hope. The rejoicing thus suited those who had survived the regime’s systematic oppression.
The rebels’ declaration regarding Sednaya jail, an infamous detention center that had come to represent the cruelty of the regime, was a particularly momentous occasion. As the rebels announced, “We celebrate with the Syrian people the news of freeing our prisoners and releasing their chains,” they hinted at the possibility of a new age of justice and responsibility.
There is more to the fall of the Assad government than a shift in power. For a nation ravaged by 13 years of bloody conflict that has left millions of people homeless, hundreds of thousands dead, and once-vibrant cities in ruins, it marks a turning point.
But the way forward is still unclear. A faction with a complicated past, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has played a crucial role in the rebels’ progress. HTS, which was once affiliated with al Qaeda, has established itself as a major force in the new political environment.
Specifically, we benefited from input by Joshua Landis, a leading Syria specialist from the University of Oklahoma. “The real question is how orderly this transition will be,” he said, adding that Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate the al-Nusra Front, or the HTS, will be instrumental in determining how effective the new structure will be in handling this issue.
The international community now includes a rather intricate task. The Western governments, who have cut all relations and support to the Assad regime in the past, had to think of how they are going to interact with an administration where one of the main partners was only recently removed from the list of terrorist organizations.
Golani seems to be keen not to repeat the disaster of the failure in Iraq that followed the collapse of Saddam’s regime. In its spending trend, there is an understanding that reconstruction Syria will have to involve the world, possibly through removal of sanctions and providing massive reconstruction assistance.
Yet challenges remain. Others are still wary of HTS with an expectation of the group to impose strict Islamist rule or worse even act on retaliation against regime supporters.
About the dramatic events have implications far beyond the borders of the Syrian Arab Republic. The end of Assad’s rule is a sever loss to regional geopolitical powers Russia and Iran, who rely on the regime as vital, strategic partners.
When word about the regime’s demise reached the Arab capitals the possibilities of instability in the region were being considered. The cunning delicate power sharing system that has been deeply rooted in Middle East is shifted fundamentally.
A Syrian Air plane was captured on video lifting off the Damascus airport when rebels entered the capital; the escaping airplane is a symbol of the regime on its last legs.
The period of several weeks and months will define if the given moment is liberation or only one of the episodes of the Syrian modern history, which is often filled with sufferings and despair.
