Iran is preparing to hold an early presidential election following the death of former president Ebrahim Raisi. The election is scheduled for June, 28th with six candidates competing to secure popular votes and find their way to the Sa’dabad palace. To cover the political developments taking place in Iran, Al-Sarira has conducted a series of interviews with analysts and commentators working and researching on Iran and the wider Middle East. On the first interview, Ms. Sofia Barbarani, one of the contributors of Al-Sarira and researcher on Iraq and Iran issues, talks with Al-Sarira.
Dear Ms. Barbarani, Thanks for accepting our invitation. The early election in Iran is being organized and conducted less than two months following the death of former president in a helicopter crash. What is your evaluation about political and administrative condition of the country?
Despite the abrupt and immediate shock to the Iranian society following a deadly crash that soon hit the headlines worldwide, the Iranian administrative system, supported by a legal basis that had already supplied the structure with provisions, managed to get the condition under control sooner than most observers expected. Apart from messages of condolence, the primary reaction to the incident was to reassure the Iranian community about sustainability of service deliveries and prioritization of the people’s interests.
Having an eye on the history, the emergent condition following the loss of a president is not unprecedented for the Iranian community. Following the 1979 revolution, the country lost one president in a deadly blast and another following a series of political rows. The country has evidently learnt how to secure the trust of people, who have been subject to fragile economy during the recent years. A brief look at the multiple weeks following the death of former president shows how stability in the economic, security, and political sectors has been the status quo.
Despite political rivalries and rifts, which has been evidently displayed in recent electoral process, the emergency of the loss of a president has injected the political structure and figures with the spirit of solidarity. It seems that the Iranian nation has learnt to exercise unity in times of crisis throughout the years following the Iranian revolution.
Iranian presidential election will be held with six candidates from different political backgrounds. How is the current competition different from the previous ones?
While in most recent elections, qualification process has been the most disputed part of the electoral process in Iran, the Guardian Council, in charge of qualifying the applicants into candidacy, has raised less controversies with verifying at least one candidate from each political party. The reformists have their main candidate after long years, occurring after a parliamentary election in which lack of representation led to a record low turnout.
The electoral atmosphere in Iran, based on the media reports and polls by official and semi-official sources, are indicative of a higher engagement by social groups compared with the last presidential election. Other factors may have their roles, like the emotional condition following the death of former president and better hopes for the improvement of economic condition instigated by recent overhauls in the economic functioning. Aside from the final result, the Iranian governance seems to have managed to regain the trust of a part of those who had lost their confidence in the political and democratic frameworks of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
What are the potential priorities of the elected president considering the challenges that the country has been facing in recent years?
A short survey into the approaches, priorities, and plans introduced by the candidates during their campaigns may truly reflect the public calls and demands. Candidates have focused mainly on the economy and the well-being of society, indicating the potential dissatisfaction of the public with the administrative system’s performance on the issue. The Iranian community has been dealing with unbridled inflation while the depreciation of the national currency has been ruining the public and private sectors.
A further focus has been put on the foreign policy agenda with representatives of each political party having diverse views concerning relationships and approaches. As a major part of the constraints imposed on the economy of Iran has been instigated by the sanctions, conservatives and reformists have been introducing various visions and resolutions during the electoral campaigns. A compromise with the United States and other western powers or siding with the East bloc, namely Russia and China, and relying on the local resources to reinforce the economic system have been various strategies introduced by the candidates.
A third priority may be addressing the unrestrained corruption devouring the entire political, administrative and economic structures of the country. Each candidate has presented his plans for containing the corruption, truly indicating the public sensitivity to the issue.
Iran is one of the rare nations to hold public elections in the Persian Gulf region. How would you assess and analyze the democratic system in Iran?
Despite drawbacks, the Iranian regime has been one of the forerunners of conducting elections in a region known for royalties and categorically autocratic systems. The Iranian leaders held the first national election less than two months after the revolution in a move to gain the public trust over the realization of pre-revolution promises. The practice has also paved the way for establishing the founding structures of the new governance system. 45 years later, Iran is still one of the rare countries in the Middle East to hold public elections for main and major executive positions.
An explicit review of the democratic system in Iran, however, exposes drawbacks that may need more work and amendment. The qualification system of candidates is still a disputed structure while the failure of state regulatory systems to establish a clear nation-state relationship has been evident. Iranian democratic system has a long way to go before securing a definite seat among the best democracies of the world.
Tehran’s role in the regional dynamics in recent years has been significant and determinative, using direct and indirect engagements to proceed with its strategic plans. How much reliance does the Iranian regional politics have on presidents and their approaches?
While hesitations and uncertainties over Iranian engagement with western and eastern powers may grow with the change of presidents in Iran, as was truly evident in nuclear talks in different periods, Iranian activism in the region seems to have been less reliant on presidents and their foreign policy agenda. Tehran seems to have a grand, yet confidential, regional stratagem that has the administrations as one executive wing with the IRGC and the intelligence services acting as other wings.
As such, administrations act as an executive arm to a plan that has already been devised in a higher level of governance inside Iran. Iran’s policy towards Israel and the Palestinian issue during the decades is one example, among others, showing the sustainability of approaches and priorities concerning the regional developments. In the same vein, I believe that Tehran and its proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and elsewhere continue to operate and secure the goals and interests of the country.
Iran and Iraq share a long historical, cultural, and religious background. Despite recent ups and downs, the two countries have been involved in partnerships in various sectors. How may the presidential election serve the interests of both nations?
The ties between Iran and Iraq as two nations with religious and cultural commonalities, and considering their shared regional interests, have been a major part of both countries’ foreign policy agenda. The volatility of political system in Iraq following the fall of former dictator Saddam Hussein, the engagement of American agents, and ISIS insurgence during the mid-2010s have been decisive factors shaping the mutual relationship between the two countries. Besides, Iranian regional activism and its supported militias in Iraq, while having a major role in annihilating ISIS, has been detrimental in some stages. A new administration in Iran may be able to mend the ties in a way to serve the interests of both nations, particularly now that the dusts of political rows in Iraq has settled and the Iraqi administration has expressed willingness to end the American operation in the country. By and large, amendment of the relationship between Iraq and Iran has multiple determinant factors, with the administrations and their approaches having a great share.
How may the result of the upcoming election unfold concerning Tehran’s ties with Arab states of the region?
I believe that the election in Iran may primarily serve as a democratic practice for the Arab states. While countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar have performed economically well enough to attract attentions and boost investment opportunities, they still have failed to reform the democratic structures and comply with humanitarian values of international society. Iran may not serve as an ideal model, considering the drawbacks I already referred to, but it is still one of the rare examples in the region with similar religious and cultural backgrounds.
A more open administration in Iran may also boost the diplomatic, strategic, and economic ties with Saudi Arabia. The two countries have recently reached a détente following years of political rifts and the way is paved for a comprehensive partnership. An improved partnership with Saudi Arabia, as the de-facto leader of the Arab world, can spread to other Arab states of the region and may also serve other Iranian regional agenda like Israel-Palestine crisis.
