According to sources close to the Turkish president, he will win in Turkey Elections because Ogan’s support will shift in his favor and because he still has plenty of tricks in his sleeve.
There will be a runoff for the presidency on May 28 according to preliminary results for Turkey’s legislative and presidential elections.
With 99.9% of the ballots counted, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came close to winning the election with 49.40% of the vote. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate who was his major rival, received only 44.96 percent of the vote.
The breakaway Turkish ultranationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who received 5.2 percent of the vote, was the big surprise.
What occurs next?
Senior members of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), which currently controls Turkey, were unsurprised by the outcome, it can be said with certainty.
For weeks, the AKP’s own polls were inconsistent even though numerous public polls showed that Kilicdaroglu was in the lead and had a remote chance of winning in the first round.
The party’s seven recent polls revealed Erdogan was ahead of Kilicdaroglu by two to three points and that a runoff election was most likely. These estimates have now been confirmed.
Erdogan’s supporters in Turkey and government officials told reporters that they have every confidence he will win the runoff.
In the second round, Erdogan has a significant advantage due to two key factors. .
The parliament comes first. The AKP received just 35.4 percent of the vote and won 266 seats in parliament, a loss of eight percentage points from the previous election in 2018. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which is its ally, only saw a 1% decline from 2018 to 2019, keeping 10% of the vote and 50 MPs. Erdogan keeps his majority with the MHP.
In the past, AKP officials told reporters that they believed Erdogan would have a significant psychological advantage over his rival if the presidential election was forced into a runoff. Turkish individuals could do without dwelling together,” one senior authority said at that point.
They also stated that in a second round, they will rely on emotion to present Erdogan’s most recent term to the public as significant and attempt to persuade the public that he deserves a final victory.
However, Erdogan also has a benefit: Voters for Sinan Ogan. An examination on Sunday night in light of Anadolu Organization information shows Ogan has eaten into Erdogan’s vote share in focal Anatolia.
Erdogan, for instance, appears to have lost Konya by 5.3% in 2018, when he received 74.2 percent, but now holds 68.9%. At the moment, Ogan receives 6.76 percent of the votes there.
Since 2018, it appears that Erdogan’s vote share in Kayseri has decreased by 6.6%. Ogan is at 8.7% in this situation.
In a similar vein, Yozgat gave Erdogan 72.6% of its votes, down from 75.5% five years ago. Ogan possesses 5.7%. Erdogan’s share in Sivas has dropped from 72.3 to 69.6 percent. At 6.1 percent, Ogan is.
In each of these places, Kilicdaroglu’s vote share appears to be between 2% and 3% lower than that of the opposition in 2018.
This examination recommends Erdogan electors somehow emigrated to Ogan, most likely because of monetary difficulties or against evacuee feeling.
These voters are likely to back Erdogan in the runoff because, when compared to Kilicdaroglu, he best represents the Turkish nationalist side of the country.
Erdogan likewise has different aces in the hole. In contrast to Kilicdaroglu, he has yet to name his vice-presidential candidates. Additionally, his unconventional monetary policy, which has been widely criticized by economists, still has room for change.