Will Western Countries Respond to Iran’s attack on Israel? [Part Two]

The G7 members are now in Italy, discussing potential ways to respond to Iran’s attack to Israel. But are their options viable?

Option Two: a military attack against Iran!

Some sources believe that sanctioning Iran is not the only way to respond to its Sunday attack on Israel. Referring to past historical events in the region, they have raised the possibility that if Israel is patient and refuses to respond hastily to Iran’s attack, then there is a chance that a military coalition led by the United States will be formed to attack Iran.

One report suggests in this regard that “when Iraq fired dozens of Scud missiles at Israel in early 1991, the United States asked Israel’s then-prime minister Yitzhak Shamir not to respond to the attack. Shamir, however, made it clear that Israel must take countermeasures. After days of round-the-clock calls, numerous visits between high-level officials, and lengthy meetings, Israel finally decided not to attack Iraq in retaliation, and a few days later, the United States formed a coalition of 42 nations and invaded Iraq.

Iran’s decision to launch 350 missiles and drones at Israel last week marked the first time since then that an independent country has launched such an attack against Israel. Now, like then, another radical leader from the Likud Party, Benjamin Netanyahu, is the Prime Minister of Israel, and the Western countries, just like then, are conducting continuous negotiations and phone calls with Israel, requesting non-reciprocal response against Iran.

How viable are the two options?

Although there is a possibility of intensifying the sanctions against Iran, this option of declaring the IRGC as a terrorist organization does not seem very practical for Europe, because as they themselves have said, this requires the approval of the European Court, which has many administrative and legal complications. It can also have wide consequences for Europe, including Iran’s decision to end diplomatic relations with European countries. Britain, for example, has recently announced that for this very reason, it has no desire to declare the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization.

Regarding the possibility of an attack on Iran by an international coalition, it should be noted that the situation of the international system has changed a lot since then, and the United States is no longer the world’s superpower.

The unipolar system after the collapse of the Soviet Union has now been replaced by a multipolar system in which the US is only one part of. In addition, the US has now two other battle fronts to fight with Russia and China. This means that Washington has neither the intention nor the ability to form an international coalition and attack Iran militarily.

Last but not least, Iran is no Iraq. It is now a big power in the region, with highly modern weapons such as high-tech drones and ballistic as well as hypersonic missiles. Therefore, both the US and any country that would want to join such a military coalition against Iran have to think it twice before even considering to attack the Islamic Republic.