‘Boil the Frog’; Iran’s New Policy Against US and Israel [Part Two]

While the world expects a quick response from Iran to Israel’s Monday attack, Tehran is cleverly playing its own game with both Washington and Tel Aviv.

2- Israeli frog

The defeats of Israel in the face of Iran’s strategic policy of ‘boil the frog’ are even more painful. The Israeli frog is indeed already sleeping in warm water, led by Netanyahu dreaming of a “new Israel”. He dreams of an Israel that will be built after the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. Netanyahu has plans to expand settlements in the besieged Strip, build luxury villas along its coasts, and expand housing units for as many new Israeli settlers as he wishes. Alas, all these plans are in fact wild dreams that can never come true.

In other words, the realities of Israel today tell a different story. The Israeli army has not defeated Hamas, and the Palestinian armed group continues to cause significant damage to the Israeli military equipment and human assets. According to a new estimate, Hamas’s power has declined by only 15 to 20 percent after nearly 6 months of war with one of the most advanced militaries in the world.

But this very capable military of Israel is completely dependent on the United States and its European proxies to supply its weapons and continue the war with Hamas. But now, even the US no longer has the ability and the will to supply Israel with more weapons. The fact that in recent days Israel has been desperately looking for a third country to replace it with the United States in order to provide the weapons it needs in the Gaza war is very well proof of this claim.

Although the Biden administration is still sending weapons to Israel, recent reports reveal that the US has not sent all that Israel requested weapons and Israeli leaders are totally furious by that. Recent reports also suggest that more than 500,000 Israeli settlers have announced that they will not return to Israel after what happened on October 7.

To make matters even worse, conscription is now an unsafe and unpleasant three-year compulsion for young Israeli boys and girls. But those who refuse to serve in the Israeli military have to face imprisonment.

Exemption from serving in the military for ultra-Orthodox Jews ended earlier last week. Representatives of ultra-Orthodox Jews have threatened to pull out of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition if the young in their community have to go to war for Israel, which could bring down his government.

Internal tensions in Israeli society have escalated, stemming from socio-economic pressures and disillusionment with the government’s handling of the war. Israel’s economy is also in disarray and the value of the shekel (the national currency in Israel) is continuously decreasing.

The budget deficit and borrowing in the Israeli government have also increased sharply. Israel’s tourism industry is almost dead and no foreigner would want to visit Israel anymore due to the war with Hamas, leading most of the world’s major airlines to no longer fly to Israel. Israel has also limited access to natural resources and energy and heavily depends on the vital land lines to Jordan and Egypt, and Azerbaijan’s oil and gas that reaches Haifa.

To look closely, Iran is doing to Israel the same thing that Israel and the US have done to Iran with economic sanctions. But unlike Israel, Iran has abundant oil and gas resources and powerful agricultural and manufacturing bases.

Tehran has methodically paralyzed Israel’s economy. The port of Haifa is on Hezbollah’s target list, and if Haifa is closed along with the port of Eilat, Israel will only have land lines for food and energy supplies. Ben-Gurion International Airport and other Israeli airports may also be targeted in the future, and in this case, it is not clear how Israel would want to import the necessities for its people.

All in all, Iran’s possible restraint against Israel’s Monday attack should not be construed as weakness. Rather, Tehran is steadily putting pressure on Tel Aviv with its own methods, carefully preparing the ground for Israel’s disintegration, just like a boiling frog in a hot water pot that is close to death and destruction.