US intelligence officials believe that Israel will launch an invasion against the southern part of Lebanon in a few months.
While Israel is already engaged in a full-scale war with Hamas in Palestinian lands, US intelligence officials say that the Netanyahu government is preparing the Israeli military to start another war and launch a full-scale invasion on southern Lebanon in the spring or early summer in case of failure of diplomatic efforts to push Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border.
Speaking with CNN under the condition of anonymity, one US intelligence official said: “We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months, not necessarily imminently in the next few weeks but perhaps later this spring. An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility.”
The US official also noted that “I think what Israel is doing is they are raising this threat in the hope that there will be a negotiated agreement. Some Israeli officials suggest that it is more of an effort to create a threat that they can utilize. Others speak of it more as a military necessity that’s going to happen.”
Another US intelligence official also spoke to CNN and said that according to US assessments, “there are elements in the Israeli government that support a ground operation in southern Lebanon, but others who do not. But any such operation could result in an unprecedented escalation.”
Other US intelligence officials indicated that tensions between Israel and Lebanon can increase even before a ground invasion takes place. “There is also a possibility that the current Israeli aerial campaign against Lebanon could expand. This could reach much further north into populated areas of Lebanon and eventually grow to a ground component as well,” said a third US intelligence official familiar with the matter.
Western proposals for Israel-Hezbollah peace won’t work!
To cool down the huge fire of war between Israel and Hezbollah, the US and France proposed a de-escalation deal earlier this February. But the proposal seems not to bear any fruit mostly because it includes the withdrawal of Hezbollah from the border region as a precondition for peace.
This is while recent polls suggest that most Lebanese people want Hezbollah to stay in the border because they consider Hezbollah’s presence there as the main reason why Israel hasn’t attacked Lebanon yet.
Earlier this month, Lebanese media also cited sources as saying that a Hezbollah withdrawal from the border is “unthinkable” and that officials in Lebanon believe the proposal fails to meet the country’s fundamental demands.
Ironically enough, the proposed deal is quite empty of any Israeli concessions to Lebanon, such as Israel’s commitment to withdraw from areas that have been illegally occupied for decades.
The proposed deal also includes a vague border demarcation agreement which Lebanon’s foreign minister recently rebuked and called a “partial” solution that will not help maintain peace.
It is worth mentioning here that before this proposal, the US had tried restoring to threat to convince Lebanon to agree to peace with Israel by having Hezbollah withdraw from the country’s southern border.
It was in January that top White House official Amos Hochstein said in a letter to the Lebanese officials that Hezbollah must withdraw from the border or Israel will launch a war, adding that Lebanon “must learn from what happened in Gaza.” Back then, Hezbollah reacted to the letter and vowed to continue attacking Israel until the war in Gaza ends.
