If you are one of the large group of people who believe that the fresh Gaza war is solely an initiative to forbid an imminent agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, the evolution of incidents and casualties might have impressed you through the recent days. In modern world, and most potentially in the old one, there is no one reason for phenomena that has claimed thousands of lives. While the Palestinian side kicked off the war, it turned into an inestimable chance for Israel to proceed with its grand plan to drive the citizens of Gaza out of their homeland.
For the modern Saudi Arabia, which emerged into being through the past decade, a still autocratic regime with ambitious economic and development projects, regional stability is the utmost priority. The approach was evident in the early announcement by Saudi ministry of foreign affairs at the dawn of hostilities in Palestine in which they called for “an immediate halt to the escalation between the two sides.” Nonetheless, there are other local and global forces at work.
In the same announcement, Saudi Arabia made it clear that it keeps up with the policy of supporting Palestinian people while keeping the door open for a potential future normalization of ties with Israel. While talking about the “Palestinian rights”, the announcement was hasty in referring to the “two-state solution” amid an ongoing deadly war. While the priority is clear for Saudi Arabia, as is for its western allies, the kingdom carries on with the policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. Riyadh has enough reasons to keep its politics in a limbo on Palestinian issue.
Normalization
The Abraham Accords, normalizing Israeli ties with another Arab nation after 26 years, started with United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020 and extended to Sudan and Morrocco later in the same year. While weird that Saudi Arabia’s name, generally known as the Land of Islam and the guardian of its holiest sites, was not in the list, Riyadh’s inclusion necessitated more time and considerations. Under new development programs, nevertheless, it was evident that the kingdom leans toward the treaty. Were it not for the straining of relations with Washington under Biden administration, Riyadh may have already jointed the Accords.
Israel-Hamas war has put the imminent agreement “on ice”. A Bin Salman-Biden talk, albeit, made it clear that Riyadh is still at the door, waiting for the fire to settle down. The de-facto leader of Saudi Arabia urged Hamas to “secure the release of hostages” overtoning his willingness to get back to the table. For Saudi Arabia 2023, stability and peace is an urgent necessity. Albeit, it has to chew over potential local voices and orientations.
Local Atmosphere
To some observers and historians, modern Saudi Arabia peeked out of the ruins of the Arab spring across the region. Local voices started from the youngsters and members of the royal family, most of whom were repressed, detained, or put under house confinements. The kingdom is obviously aware of the public approach towards Palestine as a brother Arab nation. Younger generations, in specific, may find a full support of Israel and letting down Palestinian brothers as a straw that broke the camel’s back.
Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is still a divided sovereign power considering religious and governance challenges. MbS has ransomed the tribal leaders and Salafi heads across the country to proceed with its religious and economic reforms. A grave provocation like supporting Israel in its war against Hamas may not look like a reform, but a treason or even heresy. Evidently, a local stability precedes the regional peace in the current politics of Saudi Arabia.
“Davos in Desert”
The early impact of Hamas-Israel conflict may be noticeable in the Saudi flashy investment conference Future Investment Initiative (FII) starting on October 25. Dubbed as Davos in Desert, the conference aims at attracting worldwide titans in Saudi grand projects for which the government has provided a $778-billion sovereign wealth fund. JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, and Larry Fink of Blackrock are a few among the many economic and financial tycoons and companies expected to attend the conference.
Obviously, Gaza conflict and a bowling regional tension puts Saudi Arabia in a weak position. Bankers, companies, and investors will be resistant toward walking on ice in a region where rockets and missiles are more military equipment than business products. Besides, the luxurious tourism plans that MbS dreams on can only be accessible in a region where blood and bullet are seen in painting galleries rather than actual war scenes.
Oil Market
A hike in the oil prices after the outset of war in Palestinian lands once more recovered the old dispute on Saudi oil production and supply. Iran’s absolute support for Hamas and the celebrations made in its cities after Hamas attack on October 7 instigated a potential further sanction on Iranian oil market, exceeding 1.5-million-bpd volume. With over 3 million bpd spare, Saudi Arabia is considered the only substitute for Iranian oil supply whose abrupt removal from the market could lead to a $100+ price.
There are two dimensions to the issue. First, Saudi Arabia has already rejected Biden office’s call for increasing oil supply after strained ties following the Khashoggi dispute. Second, mediated by Beijing, Riyadh has attempted to deescalate tensions with Tehran over the past few months, leading to a settlement of conflicts with Houthi forces in Yemen. Any move to strain ties with Tehran might result in escalations leading to further security concerns in Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia faces a multi-faceted issue for which there is no one resolution. Riyadh keeps open the doors for talk with Tel Aviv while condemning its ethnic cleansing project in Gaza. The kingdom seeks a two-state solution, while remaining negligent over the forced displacement of Gazans from the North. For Mohammad Bin Salman, everything has a meaning when it facilitates, or at least doesn’t hinder, his ambitious plans for the future of Saudi Arabia.
| The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Al-Sarira. |
