Israel is facing a political and judicial crisis that threatens to undermine its military readiness and regional hegemony. Some analysts warn that Israel might resort to a war with its neighbors or a confrontation with the Palestinians to divert attention from its internal problems and rally public support behind its embattled army.
Israel has been unable to form a stable government for more than two years, with four inconclusive elections and ongoing corruption trials against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The political deadlock has also affected the appointment of key officials, such as the attorney general, the state prosecutor, the police chief and the head of the Mossad spy agency.
The Israeli army, which is considered the most powerful and well-funded in the Middle East, is also suffering from a crisis of leadership and morale. The defense minister, Benny Gantz, who is also Netanyahu’s main rival, has failed to protect the army’s interests and autonomy from political interference. The army chief of staff, Aviv Kochavi, has been accused of being too close to Netanyahu and of politicizing the military.
The army’s preparedness for a potential war or conflict has also been questioned by some former officials and experts. They point out that the army has not fought a conventional war since 2006, when it faced a humiliating defeat by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Since then, the army has mainly focused on bombing Gaza, assassinating Iranian scientists and sabotaging Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Some observers argue that Israel might be tempted to launch a war or a large-scale operation to restore its military deterrence and prestige, as well as to distract the public from its domestic woes. Such a scenario could target Iran, Hezbollah, Syria or Hamas, or could involve a new crackdown on the Palestinians in the occupied territories.
However, such a move would entail significant risks and challenges for Israel, as its adversaries have improved their capabilities and readiness over the years. Iran has developed a sophisticated nuclear program and ballistic missiles that can reach Israel. Hezbollah has amassed an arsenal of rockets that can target any part of Israel. Syria has regained control of most of its territory with the help of Russia and Iran. Hamas has shown resilience and popular support in Gaza and beyond.
Moreover, Israel would face international condemnation and isolation if it provoked a new war or conflict in the region. The US, Israel’s main ally and sponsor, might not be willing to back Israel’s aggression under President Joe Biden, who has sought to revive the nuclear deal with Iran and to restore relations with the Palestinians. The UN Human Rights Council has recently launched an investigation into Israel’s possible war crimes and violations of international law in Gaza and the West Bank.
Therefore, Israel might not be able to go to war to save its army without paying a heavy price. Instead, it might need to address its internal crisis and seek a peaceful resolution of its conflicts with its neighbours and the Palestinians.
