Tensions flared on Sunday as Israel issued a stark warning about the fragility of its ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, cautioning that the truce could collapse if the Iran-backed group fails to comply with a key condition: as well as to call for a withdrawal of Israeli forces past the Litani River in southern Lebanon.
The ceasefire that started on 27th of November can be considered as a major process of decreasing the tensions between the both parties. According to the plan, Hezbollah forces had to move back at least 40 kilometers from the border with Israel and Israeli tanks had to pull out of Lebanon. The terms also called for unhindered access of the Lebanese military and United Nations peacekeepers forces in the south of the Litani River after January 26 armed groups.
Nevertheless, less than two and a half weeks to the deadline, Israeli authorities have expressed increasing worry that Hezbollah has not fulfilled the conditions. Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman discussed it in public on Sunday stating that the situation might fail if Hezbollah is not compliant with the plan.
With threats of the US bombing an additional region in southern Lebanon if Hezbollah does not withdraw beyond the Litani River, Katz announced this in a statement from his office. He emphasized that Israel remains committed to enforcing the accord but would not tolerate any breach that compromises the safety of its citizens.
“Israel seeks to uphold the agreement in Lebanon and will continue to enforce it fully and without compromise in order to ensure the safe return of northern residents to their homes,” Katz said. “But the first condition for the agreement’s implementation is the complete withdrawal of the Hezbollah terrorist organization beyond the Litani River, the dismantling of all weapons, and the dismantling of terrorist infrastructure in the area by the Lebanese army – something that has not yet happened.”
The ceasefire, though largely holding since its inception, has been marred by mutual accusations of violations. Since the two entities, Israel and Hezbollah, are forever trying to blame the other for the incidents on the border, the situation can always be expected to result in renewed conflagrations. Israel has alleged as “evidence” of non-compliance isolated rocket attacks and phantom activity on the border, while Hezbollah has accused Israel of having conducted unconstrained, visual and aerial observation.
The Litani River spans for 20 km northeast from the Israel-Lebanon border, and since times immemorial it has served as a strategic buffer zone. The expulsion of Hezbollah from this area is also understood by Israel to be a crucial next step in achieving security of its northern enclaves, which are for the most part inhabited by former returnees to past escalations.
On the other hand, Hezbollah has remained silent on Katz’ latest statements, but it is unclear that the group will remain quiet in the absence of a powerful push from the Lebanese state and international partners. There has also been investigation of the contribution of both the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the UN peacekeepers in the implementation of the agreement and it has been questioned whether these entities are powerful enough to confront Hezbollah, namely Hezbollah, which is militarily equipped and disciplined.
As 26 January deadline is around the corner, the situation remains unclear. The international community, most notably UN representatives and the US and France, will surely feel the pressure to mediate and enforce the ceasefire on behalf of states in the conflict. Meanwhile, the warning signal in Israel emphasizes the precariousness of the ceasefire and the critical importance of the mission to maintain stability in the area surrounding the border fence.
