In a report published this Monday, the Israeli think tank INSS outlined key actions Israel should consider to capitalize on the instability in Syria. The analysis covered the current situation and proposed several strategic recommendations for Israel.
Current Situation
The report noted that the opposition’s declaration of the collapse of the Assad regime, after 54 years in power, marks a pivotal moment in Syrian history. Syria may now enter a period of transition marked by instability and power struggles, potentially leading to several outcomes:
- First scenario: The fragmentation of Syria into regions controlled by various factions, leading to frequent conflicts.
- Second scenario: The establishment of a federal system.
- Third scenario: The emergence of a new regime under a unified Syria.
Each of these scenarios poses a serious threat to the “axis of resistance,” particularly in the short term. The Assad regime, a key member of this alliance, had previously represented a significant strategic threat to Israel. While the regime has been weakened, Assad has been reluctant to sever ties with Iran. Consequently, the current state of affairs presents a unique opportunity for Israel to weaken the axis of resistance and potentially foster a new structure in Syria that could fragment this alliance.
This environment offers Israel a chance to influence Syria’s future direction and, in particular, to counter Iran’s growing presence, ultimately shaping Syria’s trajectory in a way that benefits Israeli interests.
Recommended Actions
The report suggests that Israel adopt a proactive stance in Syria, primarily by supporting efforts aimed at regime change and collaborating with key local groups that align with Israel’s interests. However, direct military intervention or significant assistance to these groups should be avoided unless necessary, based on evolving circumstances.
In the early stages, Israel should focus on building relationships with friendly groups, signaling support for common goals such as weakening the resistance axis. Additionally, Israel could offer humanitarian aid, similar to its “Good Neighbor” initiative from 2016 to 2018. These initiatives and channels of communication remain active, so Israel can build on existing efforts rather than starting from scratch.
Israel should also maintain a strong military deterrent along its borders and continue its operations aimed at curbing Iran’s influence in the region. The country should target military sites at risk of falling into the hands of extremist factions and reassess its broader strategy of “war between wars.”
At the same time, Israel should deepen its diplomatic engagement with Arab nations like Egypt, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. These partnerships will help Israel stay informed about the concerns of its Arab neighbors, including the risks posed by the chaos in Syria and the potential spread of Islamist extremism. Such cooperation will be vital in crafting a realistic approach for Syria’s post-Assad political order and gaining support for the post-Assad regime. Specifically, Israel should work with Jordan to address security threats, including the influx of Syrian refugees and the spread of violence.
Conclusion
The report concludes that Syria’s turmoil is likely to persist for an extended period, and the country’s future remains highly uncertain. Given this, Israel should carefully monitor developments in Syria and adapt its strategy based on core objectives, including curbing Iran’s influence in Syria, preventing Hezbollah’s resurgence in Lebanon, and safeguarding its northern borders. Israel should also avoid direct involvement in Syria’s internal conflicts, instead coordinating with its allies, particularly the United States, to navigate the situation.