In a dramatic escalation of Syria’s ongoing conflict, opposition factions led by the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized control of the central city of Homs on Saturday before rapidly advancing into Damascus. Late in the evening, rebel fighters appeared on Syrian state television, declaring the fall of the Assad regime after more than a decade of civil war.
The events represent a dramatic change in Syria’s power dynamics and have alarmed other nations about possible instability in the area. Iraqi officials, however, moved swiftly to reassure the populace that their border with Syria is still safe.
Iraq Plays Down Border Threat
Major General Yahya Rasool, spokesperson for the Commander-in-Chief of Iraq’s Armed Forces, told the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that the situation along the Iraqi-Syrian border remains under control.
“The border is heavily fortified, and there is a presence of the Iraqi Border Forces, in addition to army units and the Popular Mobilization Forces,” Rasool said. “The situation on the Iraqi-Syrian border is very good and under the control of the valiant Iraqi units.”
He added that Iraq’s forces are supported by advanced technology, including thermal cameras and specialized equipment, which ensure a robust defense against any potential spillover from the chaos in Syria.
At the Doha Forum, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran Victoria Taylor met with Iraq’s National Security Advisor, Qasim Al-Araji. According to a statement from Al-Araji’s office, the two leaders talked about the most recent events in the area and reiterated their dedication to fostering stability and combating terrorism.
Kurdish Views on the Growth of HTS
Analysts and Kurdish authorities in Iraq have also responded to the swift progress made by HTS and its supporters. The president of the Al-Huda Center for Strategic Studies and a Kurdish strategist, Mohammed Baziani, stressed that HTS’s recent activities point to a move toward pragmatism.
“Some figures who were previously affiliated with Al-Qaeda now appear to have adopted a more realistic approach toward local and international relations,” Baziani said in an interview with The New Arab. “If they continue this way, I do not think it will negatively impact the Kurdistan Region. HTS has called for good relations with neighboring countries, including Iraq and the Kurdistan Region.”
Baziani also revealed that HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, had reached out to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in an effort to prevent further escalation in the region. “It shows wisdom and desire to avoid a regional war,” noted Baziani, stating, however, that ongoing divisions in Kurdish political affairs and economic hard times might further pressure the Kurdistan Region.
Turkish-Backed Forces Launched New Offensive
To make this even more complicated, “Operation Dawn of Freedom” has been launched by Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) forces starting December 1, to accomplish operations against Syrian regime troops and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Aleppo. The SNA claimed capturing some vital locations such as Al-Sukhnah, a strategic town linking Deir ez-Zor and Homs, and Al-Qaryatayn.
There are other reports that have also stated that the regime forces vacated the T-4 airbase situated close to Palmyra. The loss of this facility, which represents a major military hub for the Assad regime, indicates how quickly things are falling apart with regard to government control in central Syria.
Fathulla Husseini, a representative of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, described the situation as precarious but maintained that SDF-controlled areas remain stable for now.
“Currently, the conditions under AANES rule are stable,” Husseini told The New Arab. “However, Turkey-backed SNA radicals are attacking Manbij, and there are fierce battles between SDF forces and these robbers.”
Husseini denied reports that Manbij had fallen, asserting that SDF forces are putting up strong resistance. He also claimed that HTS and the SDF are negotiating to avoid clashes in Aleppo, where Kurdish neighborhoods like Sheikh Maqsud and Ashrafiah remain under SDF protection.
Regional Consequences
The US keeps backing the SDF, while Husseini claims Turkey takes advantage of the chaos to strike Kurdish targets. The clashes in northern Syria raise worries about a wider fight, but some experts think HTS’s new diplomatic approach might help limit the crisis.
Right now, Damascus falling marks a key moment in Syria’s civil war leaving Assad’s future unclear. Yet, nobody knows for sure how this will affect the area long-term as different groups fight to fill the power gap Assad’s downfall created.
As things settle down, countries next door like Iraq and Turkey will keep a close eye on the situation hoping to stay out of Syria’s mess.
