I an analytical report this Saturday, the Cradle news agency wrote discussed the recent developments in Syria. As the report noted, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly threatened Syrian President Bashar Assad in one of his recent speeches and warned him that he was “playing with fire”. These words were expressed just hours before the armed terrorist groups from Idlib attacked the Syrian army’s positions in the de-escalation zone in the western outskirts of Aleppo (HTS).
But according to informed sources, it is unlikely that the militants will be able to remain in the dominant position for long for several key reasons:
First, the imminent arrival of the large auxiliary forces of the Syrian army in this area, which will not allow Aleppo to fall into the hands of the extremists.
Secondly, due to the seismic political and economic changes in Europe, these militia groups supported by the US and Turkey, who fear the revival of the Syrian conflict and another flood of refugees, are less likely to achieve their goals today than in the early years of the war. find
And thirdly, Damascus has returned to the lap of the Arabs by rejoining the Arab League and welcoming several Persian Gulf countries. Therefore, these countries are no longer interested in supporting jihadists, reviving the war, or destabilizing Syria. They are also not interested in reopening the Syrian military arena to Iranian advisers or forces.
Israel’s dilemma in dealing with Syria
Addressing Israel’s dilemma in the face of recent developments in Syria, Israel’s Al-Hayom news agency wrote this Sunday that “Israel is facing a strategic dilemma regarding Assad, because on the one hand, the border with Syria is certainly calmer than at any other time in Israel’s history. On the other hand, Syria is a key channel for the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. Therefore, if Israel wants to weaken the connection between Syria and Iran or at least pressure Assad to stop the transfer of these weapons, it should make a decision now.”
The report then continued to write that achieving this would require military pressure on Syria, which of course risks turning the situation into a wider conflict and could even lead to a direct confrontation between Israel and Russia.
“Israeli officials must now decide which is more important: maintaining peace along the border with Syria, or inflicting long-term damage on Hezbollah. Israel seems to be trying to solve this dilemma by leveraging Russia to pressure Assad to stop arms transfers, while at the same time exerting sub-escalation military pressure on Syria itself.
But how realistic is it to expect Russia or Syria to limit the flow of weapons? Is Russia hitting Iran’s weapons convoys? Will Assad’s army confront its Iranian allies? These scenarios are all highly unlikely, so without Israel’s willingness to escalate tensions on the Syrian front, Israel’s ability to disrupt arms smuggling from Iran will be limited.”
