Israel and Hezbollah Near Ceasefire Deal Amid Escalating Violence

On Tuesday, the Israeli cabinet will convene to debate a ceasefire proposal that might put an end to fighting with Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia, for the first time in months. Israeli soldiers will withdraw from Lebanon gradually as part of the first 60-day truce, according to sources.

In return, Hezbollah would surrender territory south of the Litani River, around 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Israel’s border, and let Lebanese Army forces assume control.

However, despite the seeming possibility of an agreement, the bloodshed on the ground persisted unchecked. On Monday, Lebanese officials reported at least 31 people killed in Israeli airstrikes, while Hezbollah launched another wave of rocket attack into northern Israel.

Cabinet Vote Expected

According to the Israeli daily Haaretz, Tuesday’s cabinet meeting has been called to finalize and approve the ceasefire agreement. In an indication that the administration is giving the truce significant thought, a senior Israeli source told Reuters that the meeting will concentrate on finalizing the terms of the agreement.

Longtime Middle Eastern diplomats France and the United States were preparing to announce the ceasefire deal shortly, according to four senior Lebanese sources who spoke to Reuters.

Israel’s Channel 12 shared some of the key points of the proposed deal, which reportedly includes:

• A mutual ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
• Israeli troops remaining in Lebanon for up to 60 days during the withdrawal process.
• The Lebanese Army taking over from the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) as they withdraw.
• No Israeli buffer zone in southern Lebanon.
• A five-country committee, led by the United States, to monitor the ceasefire’s implementation.
• Lebanon’s government overseeing arms production and purchases within the country.

Additionally, the United States is said to have promised Israel a letter affirming its right to respond militarily if Hezbollah violates the terms of the agreement.

Although it is unclear if his cabinet would accept the agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has allegedly agreed to it “in principle.” Unless Netanyahu changes his mind at the last minute, Lebanese Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab told Reuters that there are “no serious obstacles” to the truce.

France has been heavily involved in the negotiations, with President Emmanuel Macron’s office saying on Monday that talks had made “significant progress.” The French presidency urged both sides to “seize this opportunity” to end the violence.

A similar message came from the United States. John Kirby, the spokesperson for the National Security Council, told reporters, “We think we’re close now.” However, he also issued a warning: “We’re not there yet.”

Not all Israelis support the agreement, despite the fact that it has acquired momentum in diplomatic circles. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has publicly opposed the ceasefire, calling it a mistake.

Ben-Gvir took to social media on Monday, urging Netanyahu to abandon the agreement and push for “absolute victory” over Hezbollah instead. “It’s not too late to stop this deal,” he wrote.

On the Lebanese side, politicians have been forceful to make sure that any ceasefire will happen within a UN Security Council Resolution 1701 framework-a resolution which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

The resolution calls for a withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from the area between the Blue Line-the unofficial border separating Lebanon from Israel-and the Litani River-and also for the disarmament of militias in south Lebanon.

But that has been a source of controversy almost since then. The Israelis believe that the resolution has never been fully carried out because of Hezbollah’s lingering presence around the border. The Lebanese in turn accuse the Israelis of breaking the resolution through repeated military overflights and other incursions.

Peace in Lebanon is in a bit closer sight, but there is no movement toward a cease-fire in Gaza. Peace talks between Israelis and Hamas have been at a standstill for months, with even Qatar stepping back from its role as mediator. A conflict with Hezbollah began on October 8, 2023, after the latter launched rockets into Israel in solidarity with Hamas. The next day, Israel declared war on Hezbollah and started a brutal campaign currently razing big swathes of Lebanon.

Israel says it is doing this to reestablish security along its northern border and allow the return of the approximately 60,000 Israelis displaced by the attacking forces of Hezbollah.

But the cost of the war has been staggering. Lebanese authorities report that more than 3,750 people have been killed, over 15,600 injured, and more than a million displaced since the conflict began.

For now, all eyes are on Tuesday’s cabinet meeting. The approval of the ceasefire might signal the start of a brief break in one of the worst hostilities in the area.

Skepticism persists, though. Many worry the truce may be tenuous at best, given the pressure from hardliners on Netanyahu and the unsolved situation in Gaza.

“This is a small step, but the war isn’t over,” stated a Lebanese official. The path ahead is still rather lengthy.