A report by the Atlantic Council noted that after Israel attacked Iran this Friday night, fears of escalating tensions have grown like never before.
In an initial report, the Atlantic Council noted that following Friday’s attack by Israel against Iran, the next few days and the decisions that both sides will take can be fundamental to the future of the region.
The report also stated that “after a long period of waiting, Israel finally carried out its response to Iran’s missile attack on October 1. Unlike Israel’s previous response after Iran’s attack in April, this time a large-scale and significant attack on various targets happened inside Iran, which were carried out by hundreds of planes and in several waves,” the report noted, adding that “how Tehran decides to react to the attack could either be a fundamental step to a full-scale regional war or easing down tensions.”
The report claimed that in response to the requests of the US government and in an effort to contain the escalation of tensions, Israel only focused on military, not nuclear, sites. Initial reports indicate that Israel targeted IRGC spots and missile storage and production sites with over a hundred of F-35 jet fighters.
How will Iran respond?
Now, the report said, the ball is in the court of Iran’s leadership, which in the past has publicly committed itself to an immediate response to any major Israeli attack. This can increase the possibility of a harsh response from Tehran, which can put the region at the beginning of another round of intense conflicts between the two.
It must be said that yesterday’s attack by Israel was an unprecedented event because Tehran has not suffered such attacks on its soil since the Iran-Iraq war. Therefore, Iran’s leadership is now in a real dilemma. It is obvious that Iran is not interested in a regional war, and it is also clear to its leaders that any response will bring them closer to a regional war. They fear such a conflict, especially given the large US military presence in the Middle East, but without retaliating for this attack, isn’t Iran sending a message to Israel that you can launch more attacks? With this lack of reaction, will Iran not expose itself to future attacks by Israel?
Responding to Israel, in Iran’s view, will balance the equation of deterrence against Israel. But it may also drag Iran into a war it has avoided since the attacks by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
The report also said that Friday night was a historic one “because we are closer than ever to a direct war between Israel and Iran, which could turn into a regional war. Israel has attacked Iran from the air for the first time, and even if this round of tensions is contained, we have entered a new era in Israel-Iran relations that will have a significant impact on their future of the peace in the middle East.
By emphasizing the “defensive nature” of Israel’s attack, the Biden administration will probably try to pressure Iran not to retaliate, but this will not be an easy task, and for this reason, the coming days may contain unprecedented events.
