As Israeli officials have admitted, a full-scale war with Hezbollah could plunge Israel into darkness for days due to insecurity of power systems in the Jewish state.
Vulnerability of gas fields and oil imports in Israel
In addition to the vulnerable installations of the electrical grid in Israel, attacks by Hezbollah on Israel’s three offshore gas fields – Leviathan, Tamar and Karish – which supply most of its power plants are also expected if the war is to expand. Tamar Square, located near the Gaza Strip, has already been temporarily closed due to security concerns. But as tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalate, Israel may be forced to shut down all three of its gas fields. In such a scenario, Israel will have to turn to diesel and coal for its energy supply. But these reserves are also currently limited in Israel, and supply chains can be easily disrupted in the Mediterranean Sea.
Since 2019, many of Israel’s traditional coal and diesel power plants have been abandoned to meet environmental standards, and this has further weakened Israel’s energy security.
Likewise, there is a possibility of disrupting the supply of oil for Israel in the event of a large-scale battle with Hezbollah. During the 2006 War, foreign tankers refused to dock at Israeli ports due to insurance concerns, and a similar situation could arise if Hezbollah targets Israeli oil infrastructure again.
But that’s not the end of the story. Israel imports oil mainly from Azerbaijan through Turkish pipelines. This means that if Turkey’s political position against Israel changes, which is very likely, Israel’s oil imports may also be seriously endangered. After all, Turkey has been one of the top critics of Israel’s invasion of Gaza.
It was this Tuesday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for an Islamic alliance to stop what he called the “growing threat of expansionism” from Israel. Erdogan said that the Israeli authorities “publicly declare” their desire to occupy the entire region, and that the unity of Islamic countries “is the only step that will stop the arrogance of Israel and its state terrorism.”
Egypt and Jordan, the next victims of Hezbollah-Israel war!
The lack of Israeli gas production will also affect Egypt and Jordan. That’s why some experts believe that in the event of a war between Israel and Hezbollah, we should probably expect some military measures against Hezbollah from Egypt and Jordan, because without importing gas from Israel, the lights will be turned off in Cairo and Amman as well.
To read between the lines, roughly three-quarters of Israel’s Leviathan gas production is sent via pipelines to Egypt and the rest to Jordan, with Israel supplying more than 70 percent of Jordan’s gas consumption.
In a worst-case scenario, analysts warn, that the short-term outlook for Israel’s energy sector, particularly its electricity supply, is bleak. Strengthening network security also takes several years and requires large investments in infrastructure, which makes it an impossible option in the short term.
The situation also raises concerns about the impact of war on Israel’s vast population and the possibility of widespread social unrest in Israel, simply because unlike the Palestinians, Israelis are not at all used to power outages and shortages of energy supplies.
