What’s the reason for the shift in strategy of the Turkish government? Ömer Özkizilcik, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, stated that Ankara is dissatisfied with the security situation in Syria and believes that the US is neither willing to abandon the YPG nor provide a solution. He was speaking about the US’s continued support for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a group that is primarily made up of the YPG. Therefore, they are considering the Russian option of getting back in touch with Assad.
The PKK and its affiliates are seen by Turkey as its biggest security concern, and Ankara believes that the militants’ ongoing presence in northern Syria is a problem that has to be resolved.
Many in Turkey believe an accord with the Syrian government is imperative, since the al-Assad regime appears stable and is restoring ties with Arab nations that had previously backed the opposition.
However, other analysts argue that this has previously been Turkish government approach in Syria in the past few years, mainly as a result of their collaboration with Russia, a powerful ally of al-Assad that carries out assaults on regions controlled by the opposition on his behalf.
Since 2016, Erdogan’s approach to Syria has benefited the Assad government, stated Gönül Tol, the Middle East Institute’s founding head of the Turkey program. However, Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister of Turkey, disagrees. According to him, the government’s foreign policy was one of “normalization,” and it was a component of Erdogan’s “vision of peace.”
Fidan cited discussions between intelligence officials and the protracted Astana peace process, which involves the opposition and the Syrian government. According to him, “the region is now in a climate seeking peace and stability.” “The spirit of our time forces us to seek peace and stability.”
A Nightmare for Syrians
Syrian refugees claim that although the situation in northern Syria is becoming more complex, crossing the borderline into Turkey has become extremely risky. Following the event in Kayseri, Turkish nationalist mobs started targeting Syrians and their companies throughout the nation’s cities.
The Turkish government finds itself in a challenging situation as anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey continues to grow. Erdogan has stuck with the idea of welcoming refugees and blamed the opposition in Turkey of instigating violence. Following the most recent outbreak, he stated that xenophobia and hate of refugees in society could not be eradicated.
But being pro-Syrian has become less popular in Turkey due to a faltering economy and the growing use of anti-refugee and anti-Syrian stereotypes by opposition parties in Turkey.
According to Mazen Allouch, the crossing’s head of public relations and media, 12,000 claimed voluntary returns to Syria took place at the Bab al-Hawa border crossing alone in the first half of 2024 as a result of the general deteriorating circumstances for Syrians in Turkey. There is a growing number of Syrians in Turkey who are concerned for their own and their families’ safety.
Following the most recent disturbances, Syrian shops closed their doors on several of Gaziantep’s streets, leaving the city deserted. “Syrians in Turkey are at risk of being attacked at any moment, and such an attack could cost them their life,” Noor Abu Hisha, a 42-year-old Syrian man said. “I have closed my market for six days for fear of being attacked and having it destroyed,” he added.