Future of Ties between Syria and Turkey; Unexpected and in Haze [Part I]

In the central province of Kayseri, flames rise into the sky as shops burn and crowds raise Turkish flags while screaming for the expulsion of refugees. The video is only one of several that released in early July that wanted to depict public violence against Syrians in Turkish cities.

During this time, there was turmoil and tension brought on by the escalating anti-Syrian sentiment in some regions of Turkey and the anxieties of Syrians who oppose President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which is moving toward normalizing relations with Turkey. On June 30, anti-Syrian protests started in Kayseri, Turkey, following claims that a seven-year-old Syrian child had been sexually assaulted by a Syrian male living in the city.

The demonstrators demanded that Syrians be driven out of Turkey by setting fire to stores owned by Syrians and flipping automobiles. Following the riots, Turkish officials detained 470 individuals and subsequently apprehended a 14-year-old who was accused of leaking the personal information of over 3.5 million Syrians living in Turkey, including passport numbers and residential locations.

Syrians on both sides of the border are disturbed by the bloodshed. One day later, demonstrators showed support for their Turkish counterparts by taking to the streets of Afrin, a city in northern Syria that is under the control of Syrian opposition troops supported by Turkey.

According to Firas Abu Jawad, a 33-year-old resident of Afrin in northern Syria: “these protests were initially peaceful and headed towards the governor’s residence, but they lost their peacefulness after the demonstrators took down the Turkish flag [flying there].”

Seven demonstrators lost their lives “during exchanges of fire with people guarding Turkish positions” in Afrin and another town, Jarablus, as a result of the subsequent clashes, according to the monitoring organization Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

What’s Going on among the Diplomats?

Diplomatic moves that seem to indicate a likelihood of a reunion between the Turkish and Syrian administrations are what may alarm Syrians more than the bloodshed. President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a staunch ally of the opposition against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, cutting diplomatic ties with the government in 2011 and endorsing the protest movement aimed at overthrowing al-Assad.

Turkey turned become a lifeline for the Syrian opposition, giving military and political leaders a shelter as al-Assad addressed the protests with extreme repression and brutality. In addition to being the world’s largest refugee country with 3.6 million registered Syrians, Turkey has also engaged in military operations along the border, mostly targeting the Peoples’ Defense Units (YPG).

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has been fighting the Turkish government for decades and is regarded as a “terrorist” organization in Turkey, the US, and the EU, views the YPG as an affiliate of the PKK. However, Syrian antigovernment organizations have frequently been its local allies, and Turkish military presence in the border regions, which span over 3,400 square miles, has offered protection against attacks by Syrian government forces.

But Erdogan has mentioned the prospect of a reconciliation with the Syrian regime several times in recent years, and on July 7 he declared he would extend an invitation to al-Assad for discussions. “Our invitation may be extended at any time,” Erdogan said. “[I]f Bashar al-Assad takes a step towards improving relations with Turkey, we will also show that approach towards him.”

A week later, Erdogan made the same call. The prospective meeting, which has the support of Moscow as well, might be held in Baghdad, according to Iraq’s foreign minister. On July 15, however, al-Assad declared that he would only meet with Erdogan if the agenda item was Ankara’s backing of Syrian opposition organizations.