Russia’s recent moves in challenging the United States especially in Yemen and Afghanistan has sent this clear message to Washington that Moscow is still as powerful a rival to the West as the Soviet Union was during the Cold War era.
Moscow’s efforts to surpass Washington in Afghanistan
In addition to the decision to increase its role in the Red Sea conflict to the detriment of the United States, Russia has recently sought to improve relations with Afghanistan to challenge US interests there.
The White House knows that if the United States does not reach out to establish relations with the Taliban, Russia, China and Iran, will act to fill the vacuum of the American presence in Afghanistan. The big concern for US policymakers is that Moscow, Beijing and Tehran could increasingly bring Afghanistan under Taliban rule into their sphere of influence.
Since the fall of Ashraf Ghani’s government and the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2021, only China has officially recognized the government of the Taliban in 2024. But recent reports suggest that Moscow is moving towards officially recognizing the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, a move that could change the situation in the region as a whole in favor of Moscow and to the detriment of Washington.
Last month in June, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Justice of Russia proposed removing the Taliban from the list of Russian terrorist organizations during a meeting at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with the presence of a Taliban delegation. The Taliban has been on this list since 2003 due to its support for North Caucasus separatists.
The possible removal of the Taliban from the list of terrorism by Russia will be the first important step towards the international recognition of the Afghan government by Moscow. This action can pave the way for wider economic interaction between the two sides and create a procedure for other countries close to Russia and China to follow suit. The neighboring countries of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will probably recognize the Taliban government immediately after Moscow does so.
Afghanistan, no longer America’s sphere of influence!
By presenting itself as a regional security provider by establishing relations with Afghanistan, especially after the failure of the United States to stabilize the country, Moscow will revive its historical and strategic interests in Central Asia and hit a major blow to the international image of the United States. This is while policy makers in Washington are still doubtful whether its’ time to recognize the government of Taliban or not.
Addressing this very hesitation, the Responsible Statecraft stated in a report early this July that the US hope for the removal of the Taliban and the establishment of a government that supports women’s rights and human rights in Afghanistan is now an illusion and the Taliban government is here to stay.
“The reality in Afghanistan today is that no actor poses any significant challenge to the Taliban’s rule. ISIS Khorasan is the most serious threat to the Taliban government today, but this extremist group is unlikely to be able to establish an autonomous government in Afghanistan (as other ISIS groups failed to do so in Libya, Iraq, and Syria), let alone overthrow the Taliban government and take control of Afghanistan,” the report said, adding that “the US should accept this fact as soon as possible and try to interact with the Taliban, before America’s enemies, namely China, Russia and Iran, overtake the United States in the job.”
