According to reports, several of these players were assigned significant positions inside Taliban organizations. They took part in the negotiations of agreements for the Taliban’s mining extraction. Trading contracts for legal commodities were obtained by these groups. Afghanistan’s illicit drug industry has solid foundations and is resilient, as seen by the revival of production and ongoing drug trafficking despite strict Taliban restrictions.
Additional obstacles to the ban’s execution have surfaced long after it was imposed in 2022. Property owners still have large supplies of opium. Lesser stockpiles have been maintained by numerous families in the southwest areas of Afghanistan. They serve as buffers against unforeseen circumstances in the years to come and in preparation for price increases.
But these resources will soon run out. Harvests when production resumes are probably going to be far lower than they were prior to the prohibition. In the long run, they won’t be enough to restock inventories.
It is doubtful that cultivation will return to its extent before Taliban restoration to power. The Taliban wants to gain entry to international platforms by using its counternarcotics efforts as a weapon. It implies to push for the restoration of unfettered international assistance.
The Afghan populace has been affected differently by the drug prohibition. It highlights the glaring disparity between minorities in the isolated north-east and Pashtun Taliban landlords in the south-west. The former areas had given the Taliban the smallest contributions and assistance throughout their campaign.
An absence of participation in the local government in Badakhshan has angered the populace. No Badakhshani officers the whole Taliban government. The disenchanted populace might be more inclined to get involved in the anti-Taliban struggle as their economic prospects have been decimated. Extremist organizations that oppose the Taliban, such the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), can likewise employ them.
During the UN-led Qatar negotiations, the Taliban had an experience involving the global society in counternarcotics talks. However, additional circumstances affect the regime’s ability to obtain humanitarian and financial assistance. One of the primary causes is taking significant action to enhance the status of female community in the nation.
The Taliban may become more dependent on mining contracts if they are unable to receive foreign help. Consequently, it becomes more reliant on Beijing. China has attempted to profit on the country’s abundant mineral resources.
China’s increasing involvement in the country’s mineral extraction industry, while bringing in money for the Taliban, runs the danger of escalating popular resentment. Attacking Chinese facilities and the Taliban might result from it. The ISKP assault on a hotel in Afghanistan capital that was favored by Chinese nationals in 2022 established an example for the behavior.
Numerous Afghan communities will put more and more strain on the Taliban in the upcoming months. Growing opium is essential to their earnings. The Taliban will be also threatened from powerful drug traffickers looking for better operating circumstances. The third pressing group consists of Taliban members involved in the narcotics business.
A shortage of opium supplies might raise prices and offer some respite once more. Nonetheless, it is probably going to motivate growers to resume growing poppies. The Taliban has managed to keep these objections under control thus far. It created the appearance of full authority by using negotiation and repression strategies. The world will have to keep a vigilant eye out for any breaks in this façade.