In a risky step that sounds bad in an already crumbling house of cards-Iraq’s electricity insufficiency crisis-President Donald Trump signed an executive order that denies Baghdad the permission to buy natural gas from its neighboring Iranian state for power generation.
The directive, dubbed as National Security Presidential Memorandum-2, is the most recent in a long line of escalations in the administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Teheran. Although it aims at curbing Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence, the order will hit ordinary, relatively struggling Iraqis who have been used to uncertain power supplies fairly hard.
“This decision couldn’t come at a worse time for Iraq.” commented Hassan Rahman, an adviser for energy policies at the Baghdad Institute for Regional Studies. “With summer closing in and temperatures expected to go up to 120 degrees Fahrenheit, cutting off Iranian gas imports could leave millions powerless to provide adequate cooling and basic needs.”
Currently, around 40% of the electricity generated in Iraq is powered by Iranian natural gas. Despite sitting atop vast energy reserves, decades of conflict and underinvestment have left Iraq dependent on its eastern neighbor for power generation.
Members of Iraq’s parliament warned that sudden disruption of Iranian gas supplies could spark renewed social unrest. “Our people are already frustrated by daily blackouts,” noted MP Fatima Al-Kadhimi. “Taking away nearly half our power capacity without an immediate alternative will only inflame tensions on the street.”
Beyond energy concerns, the executive order directs U.S. agencies to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran through expanded financial sanctions and restrictions on Revolutionary Guard Corps activities beyond Iranian borders. The State Department must also work to prevent Iran from using Iraq’s banking system to evade existing sanctions.
Regional analysts suggest the timing may be linked to upcoming nuclear talks. “The administration seems to be reinforcing its negotiating position by showing that it is willing to pressure even close regional allies at the expense of their government,” said Dr. Sarah Mitchell of the Gulf Security Forum.
Iraqi officials are racing to line up alternative gas sources, but experts say it could take years to put in place the infrastructure needed to replace what they had gotten from Syria. “You can’t just flip a switch and replace Iranian gas overnight,” said Mohammed Al-Jabouri, an energy consultant. “It requires serious investment in pipelines and processing plants in Iraq, which do not exist at the moment.”
As Baghdad considers how to respond, ordinary citizens are preparing for a long, hard summer. “Three or four hours of power cuts every day — we’ve grown accustomed to that,” said Zainab Mahmoud, a Basra resident who owns a small grocery store. “But if it gets worse, I don’t know how we won’t get poisoned by our food not staying good or how we can stay cool in the heat.”
The White House says the measures are needed to combat Iranian influence, but critics say they threaten to destabilize an already fragile Iraq. As Iraq’s electricity grid hangs in the balance, the real price of America’s Iran policy may ultimately be counted in the number of still-more Iraqis whose lives are disrupted and opportunities foregone.
