The intricate dynamics of the Middle East can often resemble a tense game of chess, with countries maneuvering delicately amidst a landscape teeming with opportunities and pitfalls. Iraq, a nascent democracy at the crossroads of this area, lies in a very difficult situation, being confronted with promise as far as its place in the world is concerned, but also with problems, due in no small part to its strategic position alongside Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and a war-torn Syria. Events in 2024 exemplify the wide range of pressures Iraq is currently grappling with as it tries to chart a course toward stability and prosperity.
The year saw Iraq confronted by enduring security threats, most notably attacks on U.S. military bases by various armed factions. At the same time, political discussion was hot and heavy regarding the continued US military occupation. Adding to the complexity, Iraq also had to contend with wider regional conflict. The Gaza conflict and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria added more instability to the area, and thereby fresh challenges for Iraqi regime.
to strengthen the Iraq-U.S. partnership. However, the Prime Minister’s vision extended beyond traditional security concerns. He tried to broaden the alliance to include key domains, including energy, education and investment. This approach does not only intend to diversify Iraq economic and infrastructural base, but also to depreciate the dependence on military alliances.
Prime Minister Sudani’s pragmatic disposition especially reflects his leadership’s determination to guide Iraq to an endogenic development rather than to pull itself into conflicts in the region that will distract its people’s attention from the challenges that prevail within its own borders. This focus is all the more critical because Iraq has its own socio-economic issues: the massive infrastructure needs and the desperate need for economic development.
The geopolitical tremors of the region — especially heightened tensions between Israel and Iran — have further complicated Iraq’s ability to address challenges linked to displaced populations and repatriations from Syrian refugee camps. A change in the corridor of power in Syria due to the outbreak of anti- Assad regime uprising and the subsequent displacement of a large number of populace has worsened the situation and exerted more pressure on Baghdad that in any case is struggling to cope with demanding conditions. But among them Iraq achieved a significant feat of conducting the first national census in last forty years on Baghdad’s already limited resources.
But amid the challenges, Iraq reached an important milestone with the first nationwide census in four decades. This momentous task is expected to affect the power dynamics within Iraq’s delicately balanced sectarian system. In light of this, census data are expected to lead to changes in distribution of resources and representation among the various demographics in the country. As this attempt brings about the potential for bettering the governance structures it raises the possibility of increasing intraparty struggles since power relations within party are more or less openly disputed at the national and regional levels. And as the new year unwinds, Iraq is set to start another year dealing with these pressures inflaming internal tensions as entrenched power relationships are challenged,
And as the new year unfurls, Iraq is entering another year without respite from these pressures. The country is at a crossroads, where the deft and visionary management of domestic and foreign pressures will be key. If pursued in cooperation with the U.S., devastatingly impacted Iraq could leverage its agreements with the goals of this economic program to secure a politically independent future focused on the wellbeing of its citizens without putting its neck in the noose on any international theatre.
In the specific case of 2024, Iraq’s participation in the Middle East drama makes it an important player in the unfolding narrative. The state has to skillfully broker its desire for development against the realities of geographic location. As Baghdad beams toward the year 2025, the strength and tactical brilliance of its leaders will be crucial in navigating the country through yet another year of daunting challenges and exciting prospects.
