A whole new chapter is opening in that old city-Damascus-beaten by every storm in history. Streets that once echoed with loud warfare have now become forests of caution, almost buzzing with whispered worries. While Syria takes its early steps into what so many are calling a “new age,” the world does not hold its breath to question if it is going to be different this time.
The power transfer in Syria has not been ordinary at all. On December 8, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered Damascus, led by the maverick General of HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani. It was a new beginning and an end of an era on a quivering balancing rope that may determine the future for generations in Syria.
In these days of uncertainty, the new authorities are sending mixed signals that puzzle many Syrians and the international community. While there is a considerable see-saw kind of feeling as HTS leaders define the intention of taking over as preserving the existing state’s institutions and respect for the differences in the nation’s population, this is something the other part has welcomed. It is a very scary thing to be compared with the chaos Iraq has gone through after the 2003 invasion.
Beneath this patina of reassuring statements, flows an undercurrent of unease. There are hints that the new regime would want to corner the delicate process of transition, probably further concentrating in their hands the various powers of the State. This prospect has raised alarm bells among those who remember all too well the mistakes of the past – not just in Syria, but in Iraq and Lebanon as well.
The handover of power has been surprisingly orderly, at least on the surface. A “cosmetic role” in the handover was played by former Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali, who stayed in power until December 10. Mohammed al-Bashir, who succeeded him, has been named interim prime minister and will hold office until March. A façade of stability has been maintained throughout a potentially dangerous period thanks to this methodical approach.
The declaration of a nationwide amnesty for Syrian army troops was one of the HTS forces’ most important actions. This choice indicates a desire to maintain the regular military, which is an essential governmental pillar. Given the terrible results of dissolving Iraq’s military in 2003—a blunder that still haunts the nation today—many observers believe this to be a smart decision.
The maintenance of Syria’s military apparatus may be crucial for keeping the country afloat amidst the current political turmoil and the transition to a new state of being. It’s a hard lesson acquired in Iraq, where the disintegration of the military apparatus by the invasion caused decades of instability and war. As one Damascus resident, who wished to remain anonymous, put it, “We’ve seen what happens when you tear everything down. Maybe, just maybe, this time will be different.”
In fact it is to particularly surprising, that the newly appointed power has, up to now, not displayed any interest in pursuing a thorough de-Baathification process. The Baathis’ Party, which has ruled Damascus since 1963, appears to be in a state of catalepsy instead of complete ruin. The party site is still active, a photo of Bashar al-Assad is on the site, and the party offices have not been systematically raided or shut down.
This methodology is in direct opposition to the heavy‐handed de-Baathification policy in Iraq, which disintegrated and paved the way for decades of instability. A Syrian political analyst, on condition of anonymity, said, “It’s a tightrope walk. Too much too soon can result in chaos, but too little change can result in going back to the old ways. They’re walking a tightrope.”
As Syria teeters on the brink of this new era, the path chosen by the authorities now controlling Damascus will be crucial. Has it learned from the failings of the past and sought a way to genuine stabilization and universality? But will they fail the challenge of power stabilization, and reignite the cycle of conflict which has plagued the region for too long?
Only time will tell if this “new era” in Syria will truly be new, or merely a reshuffle of old power dynamics. At least for the moment the Syrians sit and wait, their dreams of peace and good living hanging in the balance. As one Damascus shopkeeper put it, with a mix of hope and resignation in his voice, “We’ve seen so much change, and yet so little. Still, what can we do but to hope that this time will be the same?
