While both Syria and Iraq faced challenges from Takfiri insurgents, the outcomes were strikingly different. Despite the presence of foreign support in both countries—primarily from Iran and Russia—Syria was unable to replicate Iraq’s success in defeating the rebels. This article explores the internal and external factors that led to the differing outcomes in the two countries.
Domestic Factors: Religious, Political, and Democratic Differences
Internally, the situation in Syria was influenced by several key factors that were not present in Iraq. According to statements from Iranian leaders, the Syrian army itself became increasingly opposed to the continued involvement of popular militant groups in the fight against Takfiris in the post-ISIS era. Three main reasons stand out in this context:
- Religious Differences
Iraq’s population is predominantly Shia, and the belief in the concept of Imam-Ummat (the idea of a divinely guided community) is stronger among Shia Muslims than among Sunnis. This gave Iraq the ability to form cohesive social and political movements around figures like Ayatollah Sistani, the Sadr movement, and the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces). These movements had a religious foundation that helped unify their actions against insurgents. In contrast, Syria, with its Sunni-majority population, lacked a similar structure for rallying public support, particularly due to the absence of a comparable religious or political framework. Although the Sunni province of Anbar in Iraq saw the rise of volunteer forces, the lack of a strong, unified identity in Syria made sustaining such movements more difficult. - Secular vs. Religious Political Systems
Iraq’s political system, although not fully religious, is less secular than Syria’s. The Syrian Baath Party, with its secular, non-religious principles, is intertwined with the military, and this made the regime wary of empowering religious or political groups that could potentially challenge its authority. In contrast, Iraq’s political system, despite its flaws, allowed for a broader range of political movements to emerge, including those with a religious agenda. This dynamic meant that, in Iraq, religiously motivated movements could more easily gain a foothold without threatening the state’s political stability in the same way they might have in Syria. - Democratic vs. Authoritarian Systems
Iraq’s relatively more democratic, or at least semi-democratic, political structure allowed for a distribution of power that gave room for different factions to operate, even those with armed or religious agendas. The presence of multiple political players, despite corruption and inefficiency, prevented power from being concentrated in one person or group. In contrast, Syria’s long-standing authoritarian regime under the Baath Party, which has been in power for nearly five decades, left little room for opposition or the rise of competing groups. The lack of political pluralism in Syria created a more rigid system that was less able to accommodate armed religious movements without seeing them as direct threats.
External Factors: Economic Pressures and Foreign Influence
Externally, Syria and Iraq also faced different challenges. According to Le Monde, Syria has been trying to re-establish ties with Arab countries, particularly the UAE, to address its growing economic issues. The UAE, in turn, has pressured Syria to limit Iran’s influence in exchange for promises of investment, including a potential $24 billion in aid. While Iran and Russia provided military support to Syria, they were unable to meet the country’s significant economic needs. As a result, Syria had to reconsider its alliances and engage with other Arab states.
In contrast, Iraq’s abundant oil resources have provided it with a greater degree of economic independence. Iraq has been able to meet many of its public needs domestically, reducing its reliance on foreign aid, particularly from the Gulf Arab states. This access to natural resources has allowed Iraq to maintain greater autonomy and leverage in dealing with both internal and external challenges.
Conclusion
The key differences between Iraq and Syria in their ability to handle Takfiri insurgencies stem from a combination of factors. Iraq’s more religiously cohesive population, its less secular political system, and its more decentralized power structure allowed it to withstand insurgent movements more effectively. Meanwhile, Syria’s sectarian divisions, secular authoritarian rule, and economic struggles, combined with the lack of a strong internal resistance movement, made it harder for the Syrian regime to replicate Iraq’s success. Ultimately, these domestic and foreign dynamics have shaped the different paths the two countries have taken in confronting the same enemy.
