The rapid fall of the Assad regime has profound implications for key players in the Middle East.
Turkey already effectively controls a sliver of territory in northern Syria, where its army is battling Syrian Kurdish forces. Now, with the Syrian opposition allies victorious, Turkey is expected to expand its political and military influence in Syria, posing further challenges to the Kurdish minority fighting for autonomy.
Israel would also be in a better strategic position. Assad’s fall would disrupt the structure and cohesion of the “axis of resistance” made up of Iran, Syria, and Tehran’s proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Iran’s vital military supply lines to Hezbollah would also likely be cut off, further isolating and weakening the Lebanese militia.
Moreover, dividing Syria into ethnic and religious groups could reduce the regional focus on Israel and provide space for Tel Aviv to pursue its more strategic goals. For example, after Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized a shift in focus to counter the “Iranian threat.”
Regarding Iran, Assad was a key ally for Tehran, and the collapse of his government is expected to reduce Iran’s regional influence, making it more vulnerable to direct conflict with Israel.
Syria’s fragmentation also poses significant security risks to its neighbors, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. Refugee flows, cross-border violence, and sectarian tensions are likely to intensify. Turkey is currently hosting more than 3 million Syrian refugees, many of whom hope to return home now that the Assad regime has fallen, but continued instability in Syria, which is highly likely as mentioned above, could add to the number of Syrian refugees in Turkey and other countries in the region and even Europe.
For Iraq and Lebanon, this instability could exacerbate their already fragile political and economic situation. The collapse of the Syrian government along ethnic and religious lines could encourage other groups in the region to rebel against governments in Iraq and Lebanon, which are in roughly the same economic and political situation as Syria.
Overall, while many Syrians have celebrated the fall of Assad, it remains to be seen whether their lives will improve. With no single, internationally recognized government in Syria, sanctions are unlikely to be lifted. This would further strain Syria’s already devastated economy, deepen the humanitarian crisis, and potentially fuel extremism in the region.
