How Syria Plunged into War So Out of the Blue? Who Controls Where?

Following the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Tahrir al-Sham forces launched attacks on cities under the control of Bashar al-Assad. Based in northern Syria, Tahrir al-Sham has successfully formed a coalition with groups like Suqour al-Sham, Jaysh al-Shamal, the Islamic Party of Turkestan, Ajnad al-Qaqaaz, Katiba al-Rahman, and Jaysh al-Izza. Originally tied to al-Qaeda in Syria, the group, led by Muhammad al-Julani, rebranded itself as Jabhat al-Nusra during the early stages of the Syrian civil war. Al-Julani is currently located in Idlib.

The group operates around 120 kilometres from the northern border in Idlib province, the last major bastion of armed Islamists opposing Assad. Since 2015, after government forces lost control of the area, Idlib has been dominated by various rival opposition factions, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham now holding most of the province.

Analysts believe that following the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon, Tahrir al-Sham assessed that Hezbollah’s military focus remained on Gaza, and Israel had effectively targeted key Hezbollah leaders. Consequently, Hezbollah’s ability to intervene in Syria against Tahrir al-Sham has diminished.

After ISIS’s defeat in Syria, no substantial diplomatic initiatives were undertaken to establish a stable political framework, leaving the Syrian government unable to counter Turkey’s backing of Tahrir al-Sham. Many fighters from the Uyghur Muslim provinces of China, particularly Xinjiang (East Turkestan), have relocated to Syria and joined Tahrir al-Sham.

Recently, Tahrir al-Sham has escalated its assaults on Syrian government forces, including in Aleppo. In August 2023, seven group members were killed during a government attack in Aleppo. Meanwhile, Israel has continued targeting resistance positions in Syria to curb their influence near its borders. Speaking on the situation, Hassan Abdul Ghani, a senior commander of Tahrir al-Sham, announced a military operation aimed at pre-emptively striking Syrian army positions to disrupt their plans.

Experts note that Syria is currently fragmented into four zones controlled by either Assad’s government or various armed groups with differing ideologies and affiliations. The ongoing military developments are closely tied to the actions of neighbouring countries.

Syria’s current situation

In 2017, Turkey, despite opposing the Syrian government, collaborated with Syria’s allies Russia and Iran in Astana, Kazakhstan, to establish de-escalation zones, including Idlib, aimed at reducing conflict. A subsequent 2018 agreement between Russia and Turkey created a demilitarized zone in Idlib to separate government forces from opposition factions.

Turkey later unified its militias under the Syrian National Army (SNA), which was formerly known as the Free Syrian Army. The SNA comprises groups linked to the Turkish military and intelligence, such as the Sultan Murad Brigade, as well as factions connected to the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar.

The ability of Syrian government forces to halt Tahrir al-Sham’s advance on Aleppo remains uncertain. Reports suggest that the rebels are now only a few kilometers away from the city, though this information has not been independently verified.