Israel’s continuous attack on Gaza has intensified the long-brewing war between the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon and Israel, which has been simmering for months or perhaps years. What was previously conjecture—now confirmed as fact—is as startling: Hezbollah and Israel are engaged in a full-blown war.
The level of fighting between the Israeli military and Hezbollah has dramatically increased during the past 13 days. The mass murder campaign by Mossad, which used pagers and walkie-talkies targeting Hezbollah members, killed scores and injured thousands against a backdrop of airstrikes and rocket attacks. Thereafter came a flurry of airstrikes and counterattacks with rockets.
Israel began its largest air assault in years on September 23, a day after promising to destroy southern Lebanon and force its people to flee. The majority of Israel’s air force was used to strike nearly 1,300 targets, primarily in the southern part of Lebanon. The number of air attacks has never been this high.
Four days later, in savage assaults hit that flattened numerous buildings in the built-up region, 85 “bunker-buster” bombs fell on a southern neighborhood of Beirut, killing Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah as well as the group of top leaders he was meeting.
Israel is in a dilemma!
Hezbollah nonetheless keeps launching rockets and missiles against Israeli targets. Israel’s issues cannot be resolved by an air assault. Israel is making a statement about its plans to deal with Hezbollah: it has sent soldiers to the north, and activated reservists serving in Northern Command forces.
But what does that mean? How would Israel celebrate victory? Getting Rid of Hezbollah? This is impossible. The organization is well-established in Lebanese society, particularly among the Shia community in the south of the nation.
Hezbollah cannot be eliminated as an ideology, thus fighting it would only make it stronger. Israel seemed weak when it declared in 2006 that it was going to wipe out the group since Hezbollah simply had to endure the fight to establish its legitimacy.
A swift and forceful raid? This is hazardous once more. Hezbollah may be strengthened by attacking its missile installations and ground-based command centers. For years, the gang has been preparing for this possibility. Its militants may have fought in the Syrian conflict and have undergone extensive instruction.
Stoking discontent and maybe inciting a civil war in Lebanon? This is an improbable possibility that would entail using – and in a way fostering – the smoldering discontent that certain segments of Lebanese society harbor toward Hezbollah, particularly after the organization assisted in quelling protests over the worsening financial crisis in 2019. The plan is to divert Hezbollah’s attention from Israel and keep it busy and focused inward.
This would be an overtime approach, with no assurances of achievement and the all too real possibility that any civil war would morph into something beyond the authority of any one party, least of all Israel, and change its course and extent.
Establishing a buffer zone and driving Hezbollah soldiers from the frontier? But in the end, maybe disastrous. Though it would sound wonderful in theory or at a conference, Israel would almost certainly suffer a great deal if they tried to establish a buffer zone along the border.
