With less than three months to the US presidential elections, either Trump or Harris would have a different approach to dealing with the Middle East if elected as president.
Although in recent years the power and influence of the United States in the Middle East have degraded quite considerably, it is still the most influential foreign actor in this region.
Despite repeated calls to turn toward Southeast Asia due to the rising power of China, any new administration in the US will undoubtedly maintain a prominent political, economic, and military presence in the region.
The upcoming presidential election pitting former US President Donald Trump against US current Vice President Kamala Harris will determine where US foreign policy towards the Middle East will go from 2025 to 2028. But how would each one act in regard to this region if elected as the US newt president?
Trump’s record regarding the Middle East
In many ways, Trump is better known than Kamala Harris as he has a record of being president for four years. During his presidency from 2017 to 2020, he tended to support Israel more than any other US administration. As president, Trump reduced relations with the Palestinians, recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, helped normalize relations between Israel and some Arab countries, withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, and replaced it with unprecedented sanctions.
He applied maximum pressure on Tehran and prioritized relations with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia. In fact, the Kingdom was the first country that Trump visited after winning the election back in 2017.
In terms of the US military presence in the region, Trump was the one who agreed with the Taliban to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan and wanted to do the same thing in Syria as well, while keeping an overall presence in other parts of the region to secure US interests.
Trump’s second term and his Middle East policies
In the second term of his presidency, Trump will remain a very strong supporter of Israel, and if he wins, he will be a serious opponent of the two-state solution favored by the Biden administration. Although Trump has recently called on Netanyahu to end the ongoing war in Gaza before taking office as president, he is likely to go along with Israel’s preferences for Gaza and the West Bank after the war.
Trump is also highly likely to oppose any new war in the Middle East, but he is expected to expand the Abraham Accords and he will try to include Saudi Arabia in these agreements with Israel. In that sense, he favors a win-win nuclear and defense deal with Saudi Arabia but will have trouble getting it passed as an official US treaty by a two-thirds majority in the Senate, because most Democrats won’t vote for it.
On Iran, he will likely apply his previous policy of crippling sanctions that the Biden administration eased more or less, but he will face a difficult decision if Iran advances its nuclear program, which the US believes can divert toward military purposes.
On the one hand, Trump has announced that he will not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, and on the other hand, he has conducted his three presidential election campaigns based on the principle of “no more wars in the Middle East”. This can create a dilemma for his administration.
On the military, Trump will likely implement the US withdrawal from Syria and Iraq. He will also work with regional allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia to strengthen defense capabilities, specifically for Israel.
