How Haniyeh’s Assassination Can Affect Hamas?

Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated most probably by Israel this Wednesday while he was in Iran to attend Pezeshkian’s presidential inauguration ceremony.

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, for which both Tehran and Hamas have blamed Israel, is unlikely to destabilize Hamas in the long term because the group has always survived past assassinations of its political and military leaders.

Confirming this idea, the New York Times wrote in a report this Wednesday that “the assassination of Haniyeh is a big blow to the resistance axis in the short term. But Hamas has faced this situation in the past, and after each assassination, it has turned out even stronger than before.”

The long list of Hamas leaders assassinated by Israel includes Ahmed Yassin, the founder and spiritual leader of Hamas killed in 2004, Salah Shahadeh, the founder of the military wing of Hamas killed in 2002, Abdelaziz Rantisi, a senior Hamas leader in Gaza killed in 2004, and Ahmed al-Jabari, a top commander of Hamas killed in 2012.

Quoting from political experts, the report also noted that “Hamas’ reliance is on its institutions, not on specific individuals, and these institutions are ready to fill in any vacuum created by the loss of leaders such as Haniyeh. This has helped Hamas to overcome critical moments like this.”

Who will be the next political leader of Hamas?

Now that Haniyeh is dead, the Hamas Shura Council, the group’s main advisory body, is expected to meet soon to name a new successor. Who are the members of this council is a secret, but they represent the group’s regional sections in Gaza, the West Bank, the diaspora Palestinians, and Palestinian prisoners.

The next political leader of Hamas will likely be someone from outside the West Bank and Gaza as the position often requires weekly and even daily traveling. When Haniyeh was first elected as head of the Hamas political bureau, he stayed in his hometown of Gaza City for a while. Later, however, he moved to Doha with some of his family members due to the need for frequent traveling.

Khaled Mashal, the former head of Hamas’s political office, is among the contenders to replace Haniyeh. Mashal has been living in Doha for a long time and often sat next to Haniyeh in meetings with ministers and high-ranking officials. Musa Abu Marzouq and Khalil al-Hiya, both senior Hamas officials in Doha, are other possible options to succeed Haniyeh.

What will be the short-term effects of lack of Haniyeh?

In recent months, Ismail Haniyeh devoted most of his time to negotiate and communicate with Qatari and Egyptian mediators about reaching a possible ceasefire with Israel. For this very reason, Hamas is now likely to withdraw from the ceasefire talks with Israel, at least for a few days or weeks, but will eventually have to return to negotiations to end the war.

But countries involved in the peace talks will surely blame Israel for this stalemate.

In this regard, the Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammad bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, wrote in a message on X this Thursday that: “when one of the negotiating parties assassinates the other party, how can mediation in peace succeed?”

How will Hamas respond to this attack?

As nearly ten months of war with Israel has weakened the military power of Hamas, this group has now few options to respond to the assassination of Haniyeh. Hamas may decide to respond to Israel by attacking the occupied West Bank. However, if Iran comes to the scene to help Hamas, especially given the fact that the assassination took place within Iran’s borders, it could pose a much more serious challenge to Israel. Citing three Iranian officials who spoke under the condition of anonymity, the New York Times reported this Thursday that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a direct attack on Israel.

Therefore, considering the weak status of Hamas at the moment, and Iran’s willingness to be part of the retaliation against Israel, the response could be carried out not by Hamas itself but by the allies of Hamas, which as the Guardian noted, can bring the Middle East closer to a regional war between Israel and Iran.