Arab States’ Calm Contrasts with European Allies’ Anxiety Over Trump’s Rising Poll Numbers
In a surprising twist to the Biden administration’s Middle East diplomacy, Arab Gulf states are quietly preparing for the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. High-ranking officials from these oil-rich nations have been signaling to Trump’s surrogates that they are ready to support his new administration, should he win the 2024 presidential election. This strategic positioning highlights a stark contrast to the apprehension felt by some of the United States’ European allies.
Gregory Gause, a Gulf politics expert at Texas A&M University, succinctly captured the divergent reactions to Trump’s potential comeback. “It’s a tale of two partners,” Gause told Middle East Eye. “The Europeans and Gulf states both experienced a Trump term. For the former, it was a disaster but for the latter, it was pretty good,” he explained. “They know exactly what they are going to get and aren’t worried.”
While European allies are on edge about how Trump might handle the NATO alliance and Russia’s war on Ukraine, the Gulf states are taking a more measured approach. Their calm response to the rising poll numbers indicating Trump’s chances of returning to the White House reflects their previous positive experiences with his administration.
During Trump’s presidency, the Gulf states enjoyed a period of strong bilateral relations with the United States. Trump’s administration took a hardline stance against Iran, a common adversary for many Gulf nations, and facilitated significant arms deals that bolstered their defense capabilities. Additionally, the Abraham Accords, brokered by Trump’s team, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, marking a significant diplomatic achievement in the region.
For the Gulf states, Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, which emphasized security and economic interests over human rights concerns, aligned well with their priorities. This pragmatic relationship is a key reason why they are now hedging their bets on his potential return to power.
Biden Administration’s Challenges
In contrast, the Biden administration has faced a more complex and, at times, strained relationship with the Gulf states. President Joe Biden’s emphasis on human rights and democratic values has led to tensions, particularly with Saudi Arabia, over issues such as the war in Yemen and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Additionally, Biden’s efforts to revive the Iran nuclear deal, which Trump abandoned, have been met with skepticism and concern from Gulf nations wary of Iran’s regional ambitions.
The Biden administration currently has several open files with the Gulf states, the most urgent of which revolves around reaching a ceasefire in Gaza and crafting a plan for post-war governance of the enclave. These diplomatic challenges require delicate negotiations and cooperation from Gulf partners, making their hedging on Trump’s potential return all the more significant.
The Gulf states’ strategic calculations are driven by a desire to ensure their security and economic interests are protected, regardless of who occupies the White House. By signaling their readiness to support a potential Trump administration, they are positioning themselves to maintain strong bilateral relations and secure favorable deals, should the political winds in Washington shift.
This pragmatic approach is not without risks. Aligning too closely with Trump could strain relations with the current Biden administration, potentially complicating ongoing diplomatic efforts. However, the Gulf states appear confident in their ability to navigate these complexities, leveraging their strategic importance and economic clout to maintain influence in Washington.
In stark contrast to the Gulf states’ calm, some of the US’s European allies are experiencing heightened anxiety over the possibility of Trump’s return. During his presidency, Trump frequently criticized NATO, questioned the value of longstanding alliances, and pursued a more isolationist foreign policy. This approach unsettled many European leaders, who rely on the US for security guarantees and leadership within the alliance.
The prospect of Trump returning to the White House raises concerns about the future of NATO and the West’s collective response to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. European allies are wary of potential policy shifts that could undermine their security and weaken the transatlantic alliance.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the contrasting reactions of the Gulf states and European allies to Trump’s rising poll numbers underscore the complexities of international relations and the diverse interests at play. For the Gulf states, hedging their bets on Trump’s return is a calculated move to safeguard their strategic interests and ensure continuity in their relationship with the US.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration faces the challenge of managing these divergent expectations and maintaining strong alliances with both European and Gulf partners. The outcome of the election will undoubtedly have significant implications for US foreign policy and the broader geopolitical landscape.
The Arab Gulf states’ calm response to the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House stands in sharp contrast to the anxiety felt by some of the US’s European allies. By hedging their bets and signaling readiness to support a potential Trump administration, the Gulf states are positioning themselves to protect their strategic interests and maintain strong bilateral relations with the US. As the Biden administration navigates these complex dynamics, the future of US foreign policy in the Middle East and beyond remains uncertain, with significant implications for regional stability and international alliances.
