Despite claims by Israeli officials that if a war erupts between Israel and Hezbollah, the former would be able to destroy the latter, facts on the ground suggest a totally different story.
In the event of a war between Hezbollah and Israel, which side will have a higher striking power? This is a question that has been asked many times during recent weeks, especially as the two rivals have been strangled in a tit-for-tat military escalation.
A quick analysis of the military capabilities of the two sides shows that if war happens between Hezbollah and Israel, both will face serious and irreversible consequences,
Can Israel destroy Hezbollah?
Benny Gantz, a former member of Israel’s war cabinet, recently said at a press conference in Tel Aviv that “we can completely plunge Lebanon into darkness and completely destroy Hezbollah’s power in a matter of days.”
As Gantz said, it will not be difficult for Israel to plunge Lebanon into darkness. Lebanon’s electrical grid, already crippled by economic collapse, is barely functional. Therefore, a few airstrikes on these facilities and the electrical infrastructure of Lebanon could easily plunge the country into darkness. However, contrary to Gantz’s claim, destroying Hezbollah’s military power in a few days is a very complicated, difficult, and even impossible mission.
It is true that Israel has been planning to fight Hezbollah again since its inconclusive 2006 war with the military group, but Hezbollah has also been preparing for war for a long time.
Hezbollah’s armed forces
According to Israeli estimates, Hezbollah has at least 150,000 rockets in its arsenal. Israeli officials said that the group has fired 5,000 of these weapons at Israel since October 7. This means as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a recent speech, that “a huge part of Hezbollah’s arsenal still remains intact.”
In addition, a CNN report noted earlier this month that officials in Tel Aviv are surprised by the complexity of Hezbollah’s recent attacks on Israel. These attacks include systematic precision strikes on a series of Israeli observation posts along the border with Lebanon, the downing of advanced Israeli drones, and the targeting of Iron Dome missiles and Israel’s anti-drone defenses.
But perhaps the biggest surprise for Israel was the recent nine-minute drone footage Hezbollah released online of highly sensitive Israeli civilian and military infrastructure around the northern city of Haifa.
Hezbollah’s manpower
In addition to the massive and advanced weapons that Hezbollah possesses, the group could probably send between 40,000 and 50,000 fighters to the battlefield in case of war with Israel, though Hassan Nasrallah has said this number is more than 100,000 soldiers. The bad news for Israel is that many of these forces have gained good combat experience by fighting alongside the Syrian forces in the Syrian civil war and are considered to as highly trained manpower.
The geographical advantage of Hezbollah
Unlike Gaza, Lebanon is not surrounded by hostile neighbors. It has much better strategic depth than Palestine does. Lebanon also neighbors with friendly regimes in Syria and Iraq that provide direct access to Iran. All these facts make a war with Hezbollah
