As tensions between Israel and Hezbollah rise, the shadow of war and the call for peace are still both probable scenarios that can happen between the two.
Since the start of the war in Gaza back in October last year, tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have also increased. But in recent weeks, the two sides have been deeply and dangerously involved in tit-for-tat moves on the battleground alongside their shared borders.
This situation has sparked speculations over the future of the Israel-Hezbollah rivalry. As it is possible that the two engage in a full-scale war, the prospect for peace is also still a probable scenario.
The war scenario
U.S. officials have said that neither Israeli nor Hezbollah leaders want war, but the Netanyahu government is under intense domestic pressure to allow Israeli citizens to return safely to Israel. This can make Israeli leaders to decide to launch an all-out war against Hezbollah, bombing thousands of targets in southern Lebanon in the first 24 hours to cripple Hezbollah’s unprecedented strategic arsenal.
In this scenario, Israeli airstrikes may also reach Beirut and target Hezbollah’s command and control headquarters to end the war quickly and prevent the group from attacking sensitive electricity and water infrastructure, airports, naval facilities, and Israel’s air defense.
Israel’s opposition leader and former defense minister, Benny Gantz, warned at a news conference last week that “we can plunge Lebanon completely into darkness and destroy Hezbollah’s power within days. But the cost of such a war will undoubtedly be heavy for Israel.”
In this scenario, Israel may also target senior Hezbollah leaders, including Nasrallah and his deputy, Naim Qassem. The possibility of military intervention of Iran and the United States in this scenario is highly likely.
The peace scenario
Currently, hopes for a quick agreement between Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire are dim, but the achievement of such an agreement will reduce the possibility of a war between Israel and Hezbollah.
In this regard, Sheikh Naim Qassem, the deputy leader of Hezbollah, said in one of his latest statements that “if a ceasefire is established in Gaza, we will stop our attacks on Israel without any discussion.”
Analysts, however, say Netanyahu needs a victory in Gaza to prevent the collapse of his governing coalition. If Israeli forces can kill senior Hamas leaders in Gaza, or rescue more hostages, these successes could allow Netanyahu to agree to a cease-fire offer in Gaza, which can in turn pave the way for a truce between Israel and Hezbollah.
However, reaching a comprehensive agreement between Israel and Hezbollah will not happen so easily, and it cannot be expected that the end of the war in Gaza will lead to a border agreement between the two.
The comprehensive agreement means that Hezbollah withdraws its fighters 6 to 8 miles from the northern border with Israel, and at the same time, Israel withdraws from 13 disputed points. However, analysts say most Hezbollah fighters near the Blue Line are from villages in the south and are unlikely to leave their homes built in the same areas even if the peace agreement is concluded between Israel and Hezbollah.
Therefore, even if a cease-fire occurs in Gaza and tensions between Israel and Hezbollah ease, the prospect of permanent peace between Israel and Hezbollah is highly unlikely. In the meantime, what matters now seems to be the de-escalation of tensions which have been sharply increasing in recent weeks and can lead to a full-scale war in the region if not taken care of as soon as possible.
