Several foreign news agencies and think thanks speculated on the possible effects of Raisi’s death on Iran’s foreign and domestic political spectrum.
Following the tragic death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and his companions in a helicopter crash this Sunday, foreign news agencies and think thanks published various reports on the future of Iran in the post-Raisi era. A brief description of some these reports is given below:
-
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
In the short term, the main effects will be domestic rather than international. The most likely result of this event will be the rise of quiet but tense competition within the power apparatus in Iran, including political factions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and military and intelligence figures for more power.
In the long term, however, it is expected that none of the main policies of the country, both national and international would undergo fundamental change. In the field of foreign policy, for example, the event will not change the pillars of Iran’s foreign policy, including attention to the axis of resistance, efforts to have closer ties with China and Russia, and further regional talks.
However, it is expected that the last case, i.e. greater interaction with neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, will be reduced to a certain extent because Amir Abdollahian was a Middle Eastern diplomat and a person fluent in Arabic who spent many years working to establish relations between neighbors.
-
Atlantic Council
It is unlikely that this incident will cause a serious change in Iran’s strategic path, both in domestic and foreign policy. However, Raisi’s death will create a power vacuum in Iran. According to Article 131 of the Iranian Constitution, Mohammad Mokhbar, the first vice president, must take power. But it is unlikely that the informant will have a significant impact on changing Iran’s policy or personally seek to succeed the deceased president. Therefore, the Islamic Republic must quickly and in this short period of time replace the president, which will be a very difficult task.
For Iran, another round of presidential elections is a big challenge because the Guardian Council – the body that determines which candidates are loyal enough to the ideology of the Islamic Republic to be allowed to run – has been very strict about candidates in recent years. Therefore, finding a suitable and compatible replacement for Raisi might take a while.
-
Foreign Policy
It is unlikely that the death of the Iranian president will lead to an immediate change in Iran’s ruling system or its macro policies decided by Iran’s Supreme Leader. But Ebrahim Raisi was considered the main candidate to succeed the 85-year-old Khamenei, and some experts believe that his death makes it more likely that the title will eventually go to Khamenei’s son.
However, the noteworthy point here is that hereditary succession can create a potential crisis of legitimacy for the Islamic Republic, because this system itself was founded on the basis of opposition to hereditary monarchy, and the leader of Iran has repeatedly condemned hereditary monarchy.
-
Haaretz
Although the death of Raisi and his companions occurred near Azerbaijan and after meeting with the country’s top officials, the hypothesis that Israel played a role in this incident might come to mind, especially due to the long history of rivalry and animosity between Tehran and Tel Aviv.
However, the fact is that according to the current situation that Israel has, neither Israel’s political leaders nor organizations like the Mossad dare to assassinate a foreign leader, not even an enemy country like Iran. That’s why immediately after Raisi’s death was announced, Israeli officials categorically denied any involvement by Israel in the incident.
