The Biden administration has been working urgently behind the scenes to prevent a full-scale Israeli invasion of Rafah, the crowded Gaza city that is currently sheltering over 1.3 million Palestinian refugees, according to four sources familiar with secret diplomatic talks between U.S. and Israeli officials.
In recent weeks, President Biden and senior White House aides have made a series of offers to the Israeli government in hopes of persuading them to conduct a more targeted operation in Rafah rather than launching an all-out military assault. The U.S. is willing to provide Israel with valuable intelligence and logistical support – but only if Israel agrees to certain conditions around limiting the scale and scope of their actions.
Specifically, American officials have offered to share sensitive intelligence with the Israeli military to help pinpoint the location of Hamas leaders and uncover the group’s extensive tunnel network underneath Rafah. This intelligence sharing aims to allow Israel to disrupt Hamas’s operations and command structure without engaging in widespread bombardment or ground invasion that could result in massive civilian casualties.
In addition to intelligence support, the Biden administration has proposed helping Israel establish tent cities and temporary shelters where Palestinians evacuated from Rafah could find refuge. U.S. officials have offered to aid in the construction of delivery systems to provide food, water and medicine to these makeshift camps, ensuring evacuees have basic necessities and humane living conditions.
The White House hopes these assistance packages, if accepted, would give Israel alternative options for dealing limited, targeted blows against Hamas while avoiding a scenario where the entire civilian population of Rafah becomes trapped under siege or caught in the crossfire of warfare. However, the U.S. has made clear this support is contingent on Israel limiting the scale of their actions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to enter Rafah with “extreme force” to root out Hamas, whose fighters are alleged to be using the dense civilian areas as human shields. But such an all-out invasion risks massive loss of Palestinian lives and could spark further regional instability. It remains to be seen if Israel will accept the conditional terms of U.S. assistance or proceed with their more aggressive plans.
The Invasion of Rafah
This week, Netanyahu took actions that alarmed the White House and signaled an invasion of Rafah may be imminent. He called up thousands of army reservists, carried out airstrikes across Gaza, and rejected calls for a ceasefire – stoking fears in Washington that the situation could spiral out of control. U.S. officials have since redoubled their efforts to reach a diplomatic solution.
The offers of intelligence sharing and logistical support represent a balancing act for the Biden administration. On one hand, the President seeks to rein in an Israeli operation and prevent a humanitarian disaster. But he also wants to maintain strong ties with Israel and its leadership. The conditional assistance packages aim to give Israel new options for limited action against Hamas while avoiding extremes of total inaction or unrestrained warfare.
However, some experts have questioned whether even limited incursions into Rafah could end up escalating due to the complex realities on the ground. With Hamas embedded amidst civilians and underground tunnels criss-crossing the dense city, any military action risks high casualties and civilian harm no matter the scale. There are also doubts that temporary shelters alone could adequately house and support hundreds of thousands of displaced people for an extended period.
As diplomatic efforts continue behind closed doors, the ultimate outcome remains uncertain. Netanyahu has not publicly committed to accepting the conditional terms of U.S. aid. And with the conflict now in its third week and rising death tolls on both sides, tensions remain high. The administration is racing to reach a solution that satisfies Israeli security needs while preventing a vast humanitarian disaster. But brokering peace in the complex Israeli-Palestinian conflict has long proved an enormously challenging task, and the situation in Rafah remains volatile.
Only time will tell if Biden’s combination of pressure and assistance packages are enough to dissuade Netanyahu from launching the major invasion he has threatened. The lives of over a million civilians trapped in Rafah hang in the balance as high-level negotiations continue out of public view.
