Gaza Swamp Excludes Israel from US-Saudi Agreement

A series of arrangements developed by the United States and Saudi Arabia were meant to be connected to a third party leading to a larger Middle East agenda. Riyadh, nevertheless, is advocating for an alternative proposal that leaves out Israel following the failure of attempts to reach a halt to the violence and bloodshed in Gaza. The third party’s staunch opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state, its continued expansion of illegal settlements in the West Bank and an insistence on keeping up with the campaign against Rafah has further fueled the Saudi push for the novel plan. The old scenario would include a joint defense treaty according to which US would provide assistance in developing a Saudi nuclear power sector, and collaboration in AI and other cutting-edge industries would comprise a comprehensive agreement between Washington and Riyadh.

Normalization of bilateral ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be offered in exchange for Israeli approval of an independent Palestinian state in their homeland. Saudi Arabia’s fresh agenda lets go of pre-conditions on the Washington-Riyadh accords, including approval from the Israeli administration. The new model aims at simplifying the complexities of the old one in which any settling would be bound to a vicious cycle of modifications and procrastinations.

By forging a geopolitical alliance with Saudi Arabia, Washington thwarts the spread of its rivals’ power while simultaneously failing to achieve the momentous solution to the Israel-Palestine disappointed the Biden administration about further procrastinations. The White House had displayed no sign of compliance with the fresh plan until recently as it might backfire in the upcoming presidential election in the United States for Biden and the Democratic party. Secretary of State Blinken was persisting in connecting any agreement between Washington and Riyadh to normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel as well as the advancement of two-state solution. “The work that Saudi Arabia, the United States have been doing together in terms of our own agreements, I think, is potentially very close to completion,” Blinken said conditioning the realization of normalization to the end of war in Gaza and paving the way for an independent state in Palestinian lands.

Evidence and reports are indicative of a faltering in the White House plans. American authorities have changed their stance on Palestinian statehood and the normalization process, and their reliance on a grand agreement with Saudi Arabia following months of perseverance to tie both issues together. Blinken was tasked with concluding the US-Saudi accords in his recent visit to the country. The White House representatives characterize the accord as nearly finished but no clarifications were made about any potential or ultimate achievement. Any agreement between the two sides, for now, will be reached without reference to events in Gaza or the Israeli approaches as a third party. However, Tel Aviv might get an official proposal for normalization of diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia in exchange for permanent steps to solidify the establishment of Palestine as an independent state and acknowledging the people’s legal and international rights. Israel’s taste for ties with Saudi Arabia, which transforms the regional dynamics of Israeli engagement with regional nations, may be a pressing drive that facilitates the realization of the second phase of the agreement. Washington believed that the proposal would prove contentious in the political discourse of Israel, impact the general elections that would take place after Netanyahu’s cabinet fell.

The nuclear section of agreement might permit the Kingdom to build a converter establishment for processing refined uranium powder into gas. However, the restriction on Saudi ability to produce nuclear weapons prevents it from enriching uranium gas inside the country. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia has already sparked concerns about proliferation by announcing that developing the capability of manufacturing nuclear arms by Iran would drive the Saudi nation to seek nukes in order to safeguard its security interests.

A defense agreement will be established between Washington and Riyadh in an additional document. A stronger, official dedication to the Saudi sovereignty and its territorial integrity in face of regional threats is expected to be secured by the United States. Saudi Arabia used to enjoy a similar patronage for decades only to see the current and former US presidents’ reluctance to commit to the Saudi security, culminating in attacks on Aramco facilities by Iranian proxies in Yemen.

A further component of the agreement would entail easing US constraints on the entry of semiconductors and chips to the kingdom to expand the AI development and research capabilities. This is a crucial step toward Saudi goal of emerging a regional epicenter for high technology. Rather than a step toward peace and stability in Gaza and across the wider Palestinian lands, the kingdom is portraying a diplomatic agreement as a victory against Iran’s direct and indirect activism in the region and structures it in compliance with American agenda of gaining the upper hand in its competition with China.

Diversifying tactical assets following the advent of Mohammad bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, Riyadh has been gradually increasing the quantity of weapons it has been purchasing from Beijing. When Riyadh and Tehran, mediated by China, declared a détente in 2023 and restored diplomatic and economic relationships, bells started to ring in the White House. Fearing that it would lose its position as the preeminent source of influence in the region, Joe Biden gave up on trying to confront Bin Salman as a “pariah” over his human rights violations. The approach, which started during the presidential campaigns, entailed a successive failure by the Biden administration to implement policies in the Middle East, culminating in a Saudi stubbornness to comply with western oil market policies following the start of Ukraine war.

Biden administration is aware about the consequences of circumventing Israel in its agreements with Saudi Arabia and the pressures it might face in congress due to failure to serve the interests of the main American ally in the Middle East. A deeper concern about losing the stage to Russian and Chinese agents, notwithstanding, drives the White House to give the Saudi plan a further thought. Washington’s chances of dominating the power competition in Saudi Arabia may never be back if it waits for Israel to proceed with its vague and violent operation in Gaza. The only chance is to phase out Israel from the agreement currently and give it another shot at the second phase of a comprehensive agreement with Saudi Arabia. The second phase, however, would be even tougher for Washington losing the leverages it could employ if Saudi Arabia’s requirements were not satisfied in a separate agreement.