Despite Houthi attacks against ships in the Red Sea have caused China economic loss, Beijing doesn’t want to react as the attacks are hurting the US more than they hurt China.
There is no room for question that China’s foreign policy decisions are most of all shaped in accordance with its rivalry with the United States, China’s biggest competitor. Examining the reasons why China did not confront the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea despite the economic loss of these attacks for Beijing. But when it comes to confronting the US, China’s approach is summarized in three things: no cooperating with the US, no support for the US, and no direct confrontation with the US.
This approach is the main reason for China’s decision not to confront the Iran-backed Houthis, while they have carried out numerous drone and missile attacks on shipping lines in the Red Sea, attacks that have caused economic losses to China.
How China is bearing economic loss due to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea?
The Red Sea strikes – a response to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza – have not directly threatened Chinese ships, and the Houthis insist that this policy of them will not change. According to a statement by one senior Houthi official recently, “Chinese or Russian ships will not be targeted as long as they do not communicate with Israel.” But these attacks will still affect China’s economic interests anyway.
To read between the lines, the Chinese company COSCO, which is one of the largest sea transit companies in the world, had to stop all its shipments to Israel due to security concerns over the Houthi attacks. In addition, identifying ships (or their flag countries) is not always an easy task, which means China’s ships can still be attacked by the Houthis.
Therefore, if Chinese ships bound for Europe, instead of following the traditional route through the Suez Canal to avoid Houthis attacks, they are forced to follow other routes for security reasons. This means that a 26-day voyage will increase to 36 days for China, increasing the costs of transport for Chinese ships. Longer shipping routes could also raise import prices for China, potentially fueling inflation in the country.
Likewise, if the price of oil is affected by the disruption in the world’s sea trade, which is happening right now, China’s economy will experience huge pressure. This is because China is developing rapidly and is therefore heavily dependent on oil.
But this is only the tip of the iceberg for China. Things could get even worse if Iran deepens its involvement in the conflict between the Houthis and the US-led coalition that is conducting attacks against them. Iran’s involvement in the conflict could affect the transition also in the Strait of Hormuz, which in turn can disrupt China’s energy supplies.
China’s silence against the Houthis is for reasons beyond economy!
At present, however, China does not appear to be dealing with the threat posed by the Houthis as urgent. However, according to reports, Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to pressure the Houthis to reduce attacks. But while China has some influence over Iran, it does not control Iran’s politics. Despite being the main supporter of the Houthis, Iran is also not in full control of what the Houthis do.
Therefore, given these facts—and contrary to what the United States apparently thinks—China’s ability to diplomatically contain the Houthis is limited, and since Chinese strategists tend to see developments in the Middle East through the lens of Sino-American relations, an even more unstable Middle East may not look so bad for China as it is surely a nightmare for the United States.
Another reason for China’s lack of serious intervention to stop Houthi attacks is the strong opposition of the United States to these attacks and the formation of a naval coalition by Washington to counter the group. As mentioned above, one of the main axes of China’s foreign policy is not to support US decisions. Therefore, China will never enter a path led by Washington, even if it costs the country.
Many Chinese strategists believe that the US involvement on two fronts, namely the Gaza war and the war in Ukraine, will certainly benefit China because it will reduce the prestige and leadership power of the United States.
In the case of the Gaza war, the more the United States supports Israel, the more opportunities China will have to strengthen its relations with other countries in the Middle East, and the more credibility China’s alternative approach to regional security will gain.
China knows very well that strengthening relations with Arab countries is much easier than establishing strategic relations with Israel because Washington’s relationship with Tel Aviv is deep and strategic, but the US relations with Arab countries are not in such a state. Therefore, China’s strategy is to have an acceptable level of relations with Israel (with more emphasis on economic relations) and instead, establish deeper relations with other countries in the Middle East. And for now, China’s foreign policy decisions regarding the war in Gaza are in line with this very strategy.
