A Silent Dance of Fear and Violence in Syria

12 years after the eruption of civil war in Syria that was followed by unprecedented extremism culminating in the emergence and development of ISIS, the nation is grappling with tough security and humanitarian challenges. Over 16.7 million people across the country are in emergent need of food and medical care assistance showing a %9 hike in less than a year. The living condition deteriorated following the February 2023 earthquake that led to over 5,900 deaths in Syria.

Recurrent disease outbreaks largely prompted by the malignant water and sanitation systems coupled with ailing healthcare supply turned parts of the country uninhabitable. Over 5.5 million people were subject to forced displacement during the years around half of whom experiencing a second move. Food insecurity, reverberated by harsh economic setting and shortcomings in UN World Food Program’s assistance following donor funds’ lack of engagement, left large parts of the nation on the verge of critical malnutrition and starvation.

The wound was twisted by the knives of international sanctions and a malfunctioning of the local government in delivering the basic services. During the one-year span ending in February 2024, Syrian currency lost half of its value resulting in high inflation and a spike in commodity prices. Not unexpectedly, the management chaos following the earthquake and failing to contain the economic and service delivery constraints gave rise to security calamity.

Having already stricken with the wounds of division, Syria is still suffering antagonism between the local government and opposition forces who keep control on some regions. In Deir-ez-Zor alone, over 120 thousand residents were displaced following aggressions unprecedented in five years. Syria faces security concerns in multiple other fronts, promising even tougher days for a nation introduced to the world as the main emigration origin of the world in the 2010s.

The recent escalation of violence amplified the migration inclinations among the Syrian people who seem to have found the runaway as the only way out of the decade-long conflict. The fresh condition, largely unnoticed by the international community, can propagate the emigration crisis for neighbors like Turkey and some European countries. A spillover of a desperate population would be the last thing the European countries like Germany, already gripped by the last wave of emigration, would like to face.

The security vacuum in Syria left the room for the remnant of ISIS to join forces and step up their operations across the country. While having no direct control over a city or region in Syria, their forces have considerable involvement in areas like Al-Tanf which was the center of confrontations with American and Iranian forces in late 2023. Iran alleges the United States with retaining the diminishing ISIS capacity to extend its presence in the region. The regional instability following the escalation of violence in Gaza and confrontations between Iranian (proxy) and American forces in the region may provide a fertile setting for ISIS, one similar to the events that preceded the 2014 emergence of ISIS as a self-proclaimed caliphate.

A further root of the escalated range of tensions and violence in Syria in recent months originates from the eruption of fresh violence in Gaza. Following the war that broke out after a Hamas assault on Israel on October 7, the entire Middle East was the epicenter of hot confrontations between Iranian militia and forces affiliated with Israel and the United States. In southern regions, Houthi rebels in Yemen kicked off a campaign in the Red Sea targeting ships and carriers that they consider having affiliations with Israel. The attacks have given rise to a commercial crisis and might impact the supply chain in western countries. 1,200 miles upward from Yemen, American forces in Iraq inflicted fresh influx of strikes. The attacks were claimed by Islamic Resistance in Iraq, paramilitary groups supported by Iran. The hostilities culminated in an attack on US base in Jordan that killed 3 American service members. Kata’ib Hezbollah claimed most of the attacks in Iraq and Syria. Over 150 assaults were made by these resistance groups against American bases and assets in Syria and Iraq.

Conceivably, the assaults were responded by American forces both in Syria and Iraq. The involvement of a third side to the hostilities in Syria, Israel, added more fuel to the fire of violence and instability in the country. Israel directly targeted Iranian forces and assets in the northern regions claiming they are potential hazards to its security. The attacks, nevertheless, also included Syrian assets and infrastructure like airports and medical centers, further straining the already ailing assistance shipment and service delivery in the country. Retaliations were responded by retaliatory strikes on a tripartite model that formed a viscous circle of violence for violence leading to a security vacuum for the host nation.

Belligerent confrontations between Syrian administrative forces and opposition groups represent the residuum of the civil war years. During the second half of 2023, the violence heightened with a drone attack by an anonymous opposition group at a military academy graduation ceremony killing dozens of civilians in Homs. The retaliatory operation by the government targeted over 2,000 zones across the country believed to be controlled by opposition militia, including schools, camps, and markets. Tens of thousands were forcibly displaced following the attacks in which an alleged range of prohibited munitions were utilized.

Syrian Kurds comprise another dimension of the scar-faced Syria where the locals have a twofold confrontation with Turkish forces on the one hand and local tribes on the other. The unstable condition is reminiscent of the years ISIS was formed on the fertile ground of societal and racial divisions. Against the general view, ISIS members were mostly communities who had long suffered segregation, exclusion, and deprivation that originated largely from the administrative practice during the years. Extremism and violence are, by and large, the fruit of exclusion, ignorance, and poverty in most societies.

In a region fertile for violence and escalations, negligence in time of a heightened war may not seem weird. The developments in Syria, while the intensity and fierceness of the battle in Gaza are astonishing, can’t have eyes on stalks. The future developments and a potential re-surge of extremism and violence in Syria may revitalize an already dim source of fire into a pernicious blaze that may devour the whole region.