Despite recent threats from Israel’s Benny Gantz and Tzachi Hanegbi that Netanyahu’s government does have the ability to attack Iran, facts on the ground suggest it has never really been a feasible option for Israel.
Speaking for military reporters on Tuesday, outgoing Defense Minister Benny Gantz threatened Iran of potential attack when Netanyahu forms his government. “Israel has the ability to act in Iran. We have the readiness, development capabilities, and long-term plans we are managing. We need to prepare for this possibility, and we will also need to consider this issue very carefully before carrying it out,” “Gantz said.
But he also pointed out to the fact that incoming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “must consider the issue carefully before giving the order.”
Likewise, it was on this Friday that Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi said that Netanyahu would likely order a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities if the US does not conclude a nuclear deal with Tehran.
“Netanyahu will act to destroy the nuclear facilities in Iran. When there is no choice, someone needs to take command — it will be Netanyahu.” Hanegbi noted speaking to Channel 12 news of Israel on Friday. He further said that the option to strike Iran “should be prepared and this issue should also be considered very carefully before implementation.”
Asked if Netanyahu had actually told him of such plans, Hanegbi said: “It’s my assessment, based on my over 35 years of knowing Netanyahu… When there is no choice, someone needs to take command — it will be Netanyahu.”
Good to mention here that in January 2021 too, Hanegbi warned that Israel could attack Iran’s nuclear program if the United States rejoined the nuclear deal. And in February of that year Hanegbi said the US will never attack Iran’s nuclear program and that Israel might have to act alone.
Why can’t the attack really happen?
Following the inking of the Iran nuclear accord known as the JCPOA back in 2015, Israel almost canceled its plans about attacking on the Iranian nuclear facilities.
This allowed the IDF to invest its resources into other areas. But following Trump’s decision in withdrawing from the nuclear deal in 2018 and Iran’s reaction in moving its nuclear program forward, the matter has taken on renewed importance to Israel, which sees an Iranian nuclear bomb as a near existential threat.
But the military option seems not to be so easy of reach for Israel despite what Israel’s Benny Gantz and Tzachi Hanegbi have said recently.
The big question around any Israeli attack on Iran is what role, if any, the US would play. When Netanyahu was last in power and Donald Trump was US president, there was more expectation that the US might support a first-strike in Iran. Now under President Joe Biden, however, such an option appears to have been taken off the table, especially after the Democrats took over the Senate this week.
The second question is whether a military operation launched by Israel could actually stop the Iranians from achieving military nuclear capability, and whether Israel is prepared for the almost certain retaliation by Iran that would come afterwards. After all, Iran has missiles that can easily reach Israel’s territory.
But even if all the abovementioned criteria are met for Israel to carry out a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, it still can’t happen, mostly because if Israel was able to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, it would not need to threaten to do so, and it would have done so before saying a word about it. After all, Israel didn’t hesitate when attacking the nuclear facilities of Iraq and Syria.
