Israel’s miscalculation of Hamas’ response to hostilities in Al-Aqsa mosque and against Gaza pushed it to a local/security crisis.
The process of spike in new wave of conflicts in Palestinian lands was astonishing. On Monday, Israeli armed forces raided Al-Aqsa complex, followed by airstrikes against Gaza. During the past five days, Israeli strikes on Gaza killed at least 109 Palestinians, including 37 children, while rocket attacks from Gaza killed 12 Israelis.
1750 rockets were launched by Palestinians so far leading to destructions and casualties. Besides, in Israeli regions like Lod, the unrest led to massive protests and local crisis. Israeli president warned about a fortcoming civil war.
Time is needed to assess which side will lead the battle. What we are sure about, at the moment, is that the current round of tensions is the most intense one since the Gaza conflict in 2014. Faced with domestic political turmoil, Israel has been using force to deter Palestinian movement and gatherings in East Jerusalem since the beginning of Islamic Ramadan month.
Did Israel miscalculate the consequences of the use of violence against Palestinians?
The Jerusalem crisis came at a crucial moment when the shift of power in the United States was changing the political zeitgeist. Tel Aviv, under the pressure of local political deadlock for the past two years, lost its main supporter. Benjamin Netanyahu, finding himself on the verge of loss of power, finds a new bloody adventure necessary to guarantee his grip on premiership.
Moreover, the coastal strip, under blockade for more than a decade, is facing increasing economic difficulties. The change is the process of developments was necessary for Hamas as the leading power in Gaza. The delay of elections inside Palestine, decided by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, closed the gates of new power era for Hamas. Hamas called the decision a coup.
When the stability deteriorates the condition for a person or group, tensions might be the solution. That was the case for Israel, while miscalculation of Palestine’s thirst and potency to respond increased the depth of its vulnerability.
A War of Miscalculation
Widespread discontent with Israel’s treatment of Palestinians in East Jerusalem, as well as expansion of occupation infuriated Palestinians during the years. Mr. Abbas seemed incompetent to fight Israeli movements. His decision to restore security coordination between the PA and Israel in January was not welcomed either. “A stab in the back of efforts toward building a national partnership” Hamas described the decision.
As a result, Hamas took the opportunity when Israeli forces stormed Al-Aqsa and demonstrations erupted in East Jerusalem over the expulsion of thousands of Palestinians from their homes. Monday tensions were followed by Hamas’ ultimatum to Israel to remove all security forces and settlers from the Al-Aqsa district. Hamas also called all settlers from Sheikh Jarrah in East Jerusalem to be evacuated.
Since both Hamas and Israel were clearly aware of the impossibility of the conditions being fulfilled, the ultimatum itself was a warning. The Hams military branch began launching rockets in the evening, attacking Israeli occupied regions.
The condition allows Hamas to convey to the rest of the world that the Israel-Palestine dispute remains at the heart of West Asian affairs. Last year, when the Abraham Accords were signed between four Arab states and Israel, then-US President Donald Trump called it “a new dawn in the Middle East” to “serve as the foundation for a comprehensive peace across the entire region.”
The illegal Abraham accords, along with its founder in Washington, were doomed in history with the new spike of tensions in the Middle East. Israel’s new hostilities against Palestine turned the chess board to the benefit of Palestinians.
With the advent of new rocket exchange between the two parties, a new side of Israeli foibles appeared. Israel is sharply vulnerable in face of Hamas rocket attacks. The west Asia’s largest military power, as claimed, was harshly affected by a small military group inside an enclaved strip named Gaza, largely for a miscalculation.